Gale Warning 18, NWS Anchorage, AK

254 
FZAK62 PAFC 170028
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-171500-
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 935 MB LOW NEAR 44N 165E WILL MOVE TO 50N 175E AND WEAKEN TO 945 MB
TUE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY 950 MB LOW NEAR 50N 175W MON NIGHT WILL
MERGE WITH THE MAIN LOW TUE AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 33 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 34 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 34 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
$$

PKZ412-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY
ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT....

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN S OF 56N.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

558 
FZAK62 PAFC 171233
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-180300-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 931 MB LOW NEAR 45N 170E WILL MOVE TO 50N 177E AND WEAKEN TO 944 MB
TUE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY 952 MB LOW NEAR 48N 173W MON NIGHT WILL
MERGE WITH THE MAIN LOW TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 65 KT. N OF 56N...E WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 29 FT
EXCEPT 22 FT N OF 56N. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 TO 60 KT. SEAS 33 FT EXCEPT 24 TO 28 FT N OF
56N. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 50 TO 60 KT. SEAS 31 TO 35 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 35 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT EXCEPT 11 FT E OF 175W. FREEZING SPRAY E OF
176W. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 TO 24 FT. HEAVY FREEZING 
SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.TUE...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 28 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 TO 60 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 60 KT. SEAS 23 TO 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 31 
FT EXCEPT 22 FT E OF 175W. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKST SAT JAN 15 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WEAK NORTHERN GULF
TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TODAY. SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 998
MB SUN EVENING AND HELP KEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER COPPER RIVER
BASIN STRONG. ALL MODELS ALSO HINTING AT SOME TYPE OF WEAK LOW
FORMING MON NE OF KODIAK ISLAND WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ON SO. KENAI PEN MON EVENING AND TUE.
    THE MAJOR WEATHER ISSUE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY STRONG LOW
SW OF THE ATTU ON SUN.  ALL MODELS PORTRAIT A DEEP LOW WITH A MAX
CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE 945 TO 935 MB RANGE EARLY MON.  SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCE ON NATURE OF SECONDARY LOW THAT FORMS TO THE EAST ALONG
175W MON MORNING...GFS TENDS TO BE DEEPER SOLUTION WITH NAM CLOSE
BEHIND.  THIS LOW IS THEN PROGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR
DATELINE LATE TUE MORNING AROUND 945 MB.  DESPITE THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES THE MESSAGE IS CLEAR...A SERIES OF POWERFUL STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BEGINNING SUN EVENING.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...DEEP COLD AIR CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH RELATIVELY WARMER AIR TO THE WEST
DUE TO VERY HIGH PRESSURE.  EXPECTING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OUT OF
SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND THEN
DIMINISH.  CONTINUED COLD AND CLEAR EAST OF 155W OVER WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...LITTLE CHANGE IN STORE THROUGH MON.  COLD IN AREAS OF
LIGHT WINDS. NORTH WINDS IN MTN PASSES TO CONTINUE.

SOUTHWEST...SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD. COLDEST TEMPS IN
LOW LYING AREAS.

BERING SEA...WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER PRIBILOF ISLANDS DUE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM THE EAST SHOULD GENERATE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL BERING.
ALSO SOME COOLER SURFACE TEMPS WITH THIS BRIEF DISTURBANCE.
    FIRST STRONG FRONT SHOULD IMPACT WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUN EVENING
AND INTO EASTERN ALEUTIANS MON EVENING. RIGHT NOW WE ARE ADVERTISING
50 TO 55 KT WINDS IN THE MARINE ZONES BUT COULD BE PUSHED HIGHER AS
MODELS ATTEMPTED TO ZERO IN ON SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MAJOR EVENT IS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOWS IN THE
WESTERN BERING CONTINUING THROUGH WED. MAIN FRONT ALTHOUGH WEAKENED
MOVES OVER AK PEN EARLY WED WITH CONSIDERABLE PUNCH.  THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THIS FRONT TO REACH COOK INLET WED NIGHT BRING CLOUDS
AND WARMER TEMPS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADV 145 131
MARINE...GALES: 172 185      STRMS: 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NADA

JMP JAN 11