Gale Warning 17, NWS Anchorage, AK

594 
FZAK62 PAFC 160019 CCA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 15 2011

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-161500-
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1003 MB TROUGH AT 57N 170W WILL DISSIPATE SUN. A 945 MB LOW NEAR
43N 163E SUN MORNING WILL MOVE TO 44N 170E MON AFTERNOON AT 935 MB. A
STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUN NIGHT
AND INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MON MORNING.
$$

PKZ411-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 15 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 T0 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 32 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
$$

PKZ412-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 15 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...N TO E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 15 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO E 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ414-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 15 2011

.TONIGHT...N TO E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

292 
FZAK62 PAFC 161220
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-170300-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 998 MB LOW NEAR 54N 176W SUN AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
MON MORNING. A STRONG LOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL DEEPEN TO 936 
MB SUN AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES TO 45N 168E SUN EVENING. IT WILL MOVE
DUE EAST SUN NIGHT AND MON...REACHING 175E TUE MORNING AT 944 MB.
THE ASSOCIATED STRONG WEATHER FRONT MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
SUN NIGHT AND OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MON.

$$

PKZ411-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 45 TO 55 KT. E OF 174W...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE TO 10 KT E OF 167W. SEAS 
6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE TO 10 KT E OF 167W. SEAS 
6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
57N. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKST SAT JAN 15 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WEAK NORTHERN GULF
TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TODAY. SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 998
MB SUN EVENING AND HELP KEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER COPPER RIVER
BASIN STRONG. ALL MODELS ALSO HINTING AT SOME TYPE OF WEAK LOW
FORMING MON NE OF KODIAK ISLAND WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ON SO. KENAI PEN MON EVENING AND TUE.
    THE MAJOR WEATHER ISSUE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY STRONG LOW
SW OF THE ATTU ON SUN.  ALL MODELS PORTRAIT A DEEP LOW WITH A MAX
CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE 945 TO 935 MB RANGE EARLY MON.  SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCE ON NATURE OF SECONDARY LOW THAT FORMS TO THE EAST ALONG
175W MON MORNING...GFS TENDS TO BE DEEPER SOLUTION WITH NAM CLOSE
BEHIND.  THIS LOW IS THEN PROGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR
DATELINE LATE TUE MORNING AROUND 945 MB.  DESPITE THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES THE MESSAGE IS CLEAR...A SERIES OF POWERFUL STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BEGINNING SUN EVENING.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...DEEP COLD AIR CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH RELATIVELY WARMER AIR TO THE WEST
DUE TO VERY HIGH PRESSURE.  EXPECTING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OUT OF
SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND THEN
DIMINISH.  CONTINUED COLD AND CLEAR EAST OF 155W OVER WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...LITTLE CHANGE IN STORE THROUGH MON.  COLD IN AREAS OF
LIGHT WINDS. NORTH WINDS IN MTN PASSES TO CONTINUE.

SOUTHWEST...SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD. COLDEST TEMPS IN
LOW LYING AREAS.

BERING SEA...WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER PRIBILOF ISLANDS DUE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM THE EAST SHOULD GENERATE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL BERING.
ALSO SOME COOLER SURFACE TEMPS WITH THIS BRIEF DISTURBANCE.
    FIRST STRONG FRONT SHOULD IMPACT WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUN EVENING
AND INTO EASTERN ALEUTIANS MON EVENING. RIGHT NOW WE ARE ADVERTISING
50 TO 55 KT WINDS IN THE MARINE ZONES BUT COULD BE PUSHED HIGHER AS
MODELS ATTEMPTED TO ZERO IN ON SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MAJOR EVENT IS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOWS IN THE
WESTERN BERING CONTINUING THROUGH WED. MAIN FRONT ALTHOUGH WEAKENED
MOVES OVER AK PEN EARLY WED WITH CONSIDERABLE PUNCH.  THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THIS FRONT TO REACH COOK INLET WED NIGHT BRING CLOUDS
AND WARMER TEMPS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADV 145 131
MARINE...GALES: 172 185      STRMS: 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NADA

JMP JAN 11