Gale Warning 175, NWS Anchorage, AK

505 
FZAK51 PAFC 070001
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-071500-
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MON
MORNING. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MON
MOVES NEAR CHIGNIK AT 988 MB TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-071500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-071500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-071500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 20 KT OUT OF NORTHEASTERN
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-071500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONGER
GUSTS 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-071500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 12
FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-071500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 26 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-071500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-071500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO
1 FOOT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-071500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SAT FEB 5 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF CLEAR SKIES TO
MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA TO THE YUKON DELTA AND THEN
WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE 160 KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAM RESIDES WELL SOUTH OF THE AOR...FLOWING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC AND MOVING INLAND OVER THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN BERING.

AT THE SURFACE...A DECAYING 986 MB LOW IS CENTERED 300 MILES SOUTH OF
NIKOLSKI AND TRACKING NORTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THIS LOW TO 250 MILES
SOUTH OF KODIAK...WHERE A SMALL LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING AS SEEN IN THE IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS OVERALL ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ON
THE DEPOSITION OF THE GULF WEATHER FRONT AND THE TRACK OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIAN LOW. THE EC AND GFS INITIALIZED THE BEST WITH THE STRUCTURE
AND POSITION OF THE WEATHER FRONT AND EMBEDDED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF WHILE THE NAM IS THE WEAKER AND SLOWER SOLUTION. SOME
DISCREPANCIES DEVELOP WITH THE SOUTHERN BERING LOW ON MONDAY AS IT
FILLS AND MORPHS INTO A SERIES OF WEAK VORTICIES. OUT TOWARDS THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MOVES UP INTO THE GULF FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
AROUND MID WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE REGION...WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA WHERE A STUBBORN FOG/LOW STRATUS DECK COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE BASIN. THE WEATHER FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN GULF DECELERATES THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AS THE JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS
EASTWARD. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
TOMORROW AND ANY PRECIPITATION THE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COASTLINE AND UPSLOPED COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MONDAY AND ALLOWS FOR THE NEXT
MOISTURE-LADEN WEATHER FRONT TO SURGE ONSHORE OVER THE GULF COAST ON
TUESDAY MORNING.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE WEATHER FRONT SOUTH OF THE AKPEN PUSHES NORTH TODAY AND SPREADS
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND SNOW SHOWERS INLAND FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONT DISSIPATES
AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE
NORTHWARD AROUND THE BERING SEA LOW AND BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT REACHES THE AKPEN
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE BERING COAST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

.BERING SEA...
THE LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND TRANSFORM
INTO A COMPLEX LOW ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA INTO MONDAY BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINDS.
THE NEXT WEATHER FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON
MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE PARENT 980 MB LOW TRACKS EASTWARD AND
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A RELATIVELY WET AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA AS A LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN ON TUESDAY
MORNING MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO BRING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 132 138 150 160 179.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...140.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KS FEB 11