Gale Warning 138, NWS Anchorage, AK

867 
FZAK62 PAFC 070009
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-071500-
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

THE LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX OVER THE BERING SEA WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTH
THROUGH MONDAY. A 970 MB LOW NEAR 43N 165W TONIGHT MOVES TO NEAR 56N
159W AT 988 MB TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ411-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11
FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.  

$$

652 
FZAK62 PAFC 071244
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON FEB 7 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-080300-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 59N 179W DISSIPATES MON EVENING. A 971 MB LOW NEAR
44N 165W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 53N 162W TUE MORNING AT 991 MB AND
THEN TO NEAR 58N 161W AT 999 MB TUE EVENING.
$$

PKZ411-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST MON FEB 7 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING SE 15 TO 25 KT W OF 178E
BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  
$$

PKZ412-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON FEB 7 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  
$$

PKZ413-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON FEB 7 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
$$

PKZ414-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST MON FEB 7 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.  
$$

171 
FZAK62 PAFC 080035
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON FEB 7 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-081500-
400 PM AKST MON FEB 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A LARGE 974 MB LOW AT 46N 164W MOVES TO 58N 161W TUE EVENING AT 999
MB AND DISSIPATES NEAR 57N 155W WED AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ411-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST MON FEB 7 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON FEB 7 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON FEB 7 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST MON FEB 7 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SAT FEB 5 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF CLEAR SKIES TO
MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA TO THE YUKON DELTA AND THEN
WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE 160 KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAM RESIDES WELL SOUTH OF THE AOR...FLOWING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC AND MOVING INLAND OVER THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN BERING.

AT THE SURFACE...A DECAYING 986 MB LOW IS CENTERED 300 MILES SOUTH OF
NIKOLSKI AND TRACKING NORTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THIS LOW TO 250 MILES
SOUTH OF KODIAK...WHERE A SMALL LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING AS SEEN IN THE IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS OVERALL ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ON
THE DEPOSITION OF THE GULF WEATHER FRONT AND THE TRACK OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIAN LOW. THE EC AND GFS INITIALIZED THE BEST WITH THE STRUCTURE
AND POSITION OF THE WEATHER FRONT AND EMBEDDED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF WHILE THE NAM IS THE WEAKER AND SLOWER SOLUTION. SOME
DISCREPANCIES DEVELOP WITH THE SOUTHERN BERING LOW ON MONDAY AS IT
FILLS AND MORPHS INTO A SERIES OF WEAK VORTICIES. OUT TOWARDS THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MOVES UP INTO THE GULF FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
AROUND MID WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE REGION...WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA WHERE A STUBBORN FOG/LOW STRATUS DECK COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE BASIN. THE WEATHER FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN GULF DECELERATES THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AS THE JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS
EASTWARD. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
TOMORROW AND ANY PRECIPITATION THE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COASTLINE AND UPSLOPED COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MONDAY AND ALLOWS FOR THE NEXT
MOISTURE-LADEN WEATHER FRONT TO SURGE ONSHORE OVER THE GULF COAST ON
TUESDAY MORNING.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE WEATHER FRONT SOUTH OF THE AKPEN PUSHES NORTH TODAY AND SPREADS
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND SNOW SHOWERS INLAND FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONT DISSIPATES
AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE
NORTHWARD AROUND THE BERING SEA LOW AND BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT REACHES THE AKPEN
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE BERING COAST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

.BERING SEA...
THE LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND TRANSFORM
INTO A COMPLEX LOW ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA INTO MONDAY BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINDS.
THE NEXT WEATHER FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON
MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE PARENT 980 MB LOW TRACKS EASTWARD AND
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A RELATIVELY WET AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA AS A LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN ON TUESDAY
MORNING MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO BRING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 132 138 150 160 179.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...140.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KS FEB 11