Gale Warning 1032, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Dec 31, 2011, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Dec 31, 2011, 6:00 PM AKST

In force

14 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

115 
FZAK51 PAFC 311237
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010300-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1005 MB LOW IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A 975
MB LOW 680 NM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING LATE TONIGHT WILL MOVE TO 30 NM
EAST OF CAPE SUCKLING LATE SUN NIGHT AT 972 MB. 
$$

PKZ120-010300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-010300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-010300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT. SEAS 4
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-010300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-010300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-010300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-010300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-010300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-010300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Dec 30, 11:15 AM AKST, 16 hours 45 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1115 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL MULTI-CENTERED
LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THIS MORNING. ONE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ARE ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL RESULTING IN AREAS OF SNOW. THE CHARACTER OF SNOW IS
VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE ANCHORAGE AREA TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH THE SNOW IN ANCHORAGE IS VERY LIGHT AND FINE PRODUCING LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. FOR THE NORTHERN GULF AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND THE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY WARMER AND THERE IS MORE
MOISTURE...BUT THE LARGEST INFLUENCE IS INSTABILITY WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE AROUND 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN WATER
TEMPERATURES. THUS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS. A CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES TO
SIT OVER COOK INLET AND THE KACHEMAK BAY REGION THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY WHEN THIS BAND OF SNOW SAT OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA
ALL DAY THIS ZONE HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND AND AFFECTING DIFFERENT
AREAS THIS MORNING.

BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE SET IN BACK OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WITH ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST SITTING BETWEEN 20 BELOW ZERO AND
35 BELOW ZERO. COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
THE COLD ADVECTION IS SHUTTING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
BERING SEA AS A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WESTERN BERING.

MEANWHILE DOWN OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MULTIPLE LOWS HAVE FORMED
ALONG THE UPPER JET WITH ARCTIC AIR FEEDING INTO THEM FROM THE
NORTH. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BEGUN TO AMPLIFY WHICH WILL FORCE
THESE SYSTEMS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE BERING SEA...ALTHOUGH 12Z SOLUTIONS ARE AT LEAST NOW
GROUPED CLOSER TOGETHER THAN PRIOR SOLUTIONS AND THESE ARE NOT TOO
FAR FROM THE EXISTING FORECAST. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AND
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE WITH HANDLING OF SYSTEMS MOVING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...
NONE OF THE MODELS INITIALIZED VERY WELL WITH POSITIONS OF CURRENT
LOWS SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. HOWEVER LOOKING AT ALL THE
AVAILABLE MODELS THE GFS/NAM ARE OUTLIER WITH A MORE EASTERLY TRACK.
PREFER THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEMGLB WHICH TRACK LOWS NORTHWARD SOMEWHERE
NEAR 144W ULTIMATELY BRINGING A LOW INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. WILL
TREND TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AREAS OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE INTERIOR. EXPECT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION ACROSS INLAND AREAS
AS DISCUSSED IN THE ANALYSIS SECTION ABOVE. WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AND ADVECTION OF COLD AIR OVER THE GULF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM. SNOW SEEMS VERY LIKELY FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF SNOW WILL BE...AND WHETHER ANCHORAGE AND
THE REST OF THE COOK INLET/SUSITNA VALLEY CORRIDOR WILL SEE ANYTHING
OUT OF THIS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST WILL ONCE
AGAIN CAUSE STRONG GAP WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW OR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY THROUGH THOMPSON PASS AND IN
WHITTIER. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...BRISTOL BAY WILL BE RIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE BERING LOW AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN BERING SEA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY BRING A WARM-UP IN TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. OTHERWISE COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL
BRING A BRIEF CHANGE IN FLOW AND WEATHER AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE BERING SEA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A SHOWERY REGIME WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE ALASKA
MAINLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 172.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...120 121 129 130 132 138 140
                                        141 150 160 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 11

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2011Every gale warning in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.