Brisk Wind Advisory 40, NWS Anchorage, AK

300 
FZAK52 PAFC 311156
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-010300-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1000 MB LOW 400 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE NEWENHAM AT 995 MB SUN AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
SUN NIGHT. A 1007 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 260 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA SUN
AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ150-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...NE WIND
20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-010300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-010300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE
10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-010300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-010300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-010300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 25 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-010300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1115 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL MULTI-CENTERED
LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THIS MORNING. ONE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ARE ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL RESULTING IN AREAS OF SNOW. THE CHARACTER OF SNOW IS
VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE ANCHORAGE AREA TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH THE SNOW IN ANCHORAGE IS VERY LIGHT AND FINE PRODUCING LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. FOR THE NORTHERN GULF AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND THE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY WARMER AND THERE IS MORE
MOISTURE...BUT THE LARGEST INFLUENCE IS INSTABILITY WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE AROUND 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN WATER
TEMPERATURES. THUS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS. A CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES TO
SIT OVER COOK INLET AND THE KACHEMAK BAY REGION THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY WHEN THIS BAND OF SNOW SAT OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA
ALL DAY THIS ZONE HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND AND AFFECTING DIFFERENT
AREAS THIS MORNING.

BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE SET IN BACK OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WITH ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST SITTING BETWEEN 20 BELOW ZERO AND
35 BELOW ZERO. COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
THE COLD ADVECTION IS SHUTTING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
BERING SEA AS A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WESTERN BERING.

MEANWHILE DOWN OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MULTIPLE LOWS HAVE FORMED
ALONG THE UPPER JET WITH ARCTIC AIR FEEDING INTO THEM FROM THE
NORTH. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BEGUN TO AMPLIFY WHICH WILL FORCE
THESE SYSTEMS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE BERING SEA...ALTHOUGH 12Z SOLUTIONS ARE AT LEAST NOW
GROUPED CLOSER TOGETHER THAN PRIOR SOLUTIONS AND THESE ARE NOT TOO
FAR FROM THE EXISTING FORECAST. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AND
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE WITH HANDLING OF SYSTEMS MOVING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...
NONE OF THE MODELS INITIALIZED VERY WELL WITH POSITIONS OF CURRENT
LOWS SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. HOWEVER LOOKING AT ALL THE
AVAILABLE MODELS THE GFS/NAM ARE OUTLIER WITH A MORE EASTERLY TRACK.
PREFER THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEMGLB WHICH TRACK LOWS NORTHWARD SOMEWHERE
NEAR 144W ULTIMATELY BRINGING A LOW INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. WILL
TREND TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AREAS OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE INTERIOR. EXPECT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION ACROSS INLAND AREAS
AS DISCUSSED IN THE ANALYSIS SECTION ABOVE. WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AND ADVECTION OF COLD AIR OVER THE GULF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM. SNOW SEEMS VERY LIKELY FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF SNOW WILL BE...AND WHETHER ANCHORAGE AND
THE REST OF THE COOK INLET/SUSITNA VALLEY CORRIDOR WILL SEE ANYTHING
OUT OF THIS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST WILL ONCE
AGAIN CAUSE STRONG GAP WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW OR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY THROUGH THOMPSON PASS AND IN
WHITTIER. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...BRISTOL BAY WILL BE RIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE BERING LOW AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN BERING SEA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY BRING A WARM-UP IN TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. OTHERWISE COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL
BRING A BRIEF CHANGE IN FLOW AND WEATHER AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE BERING SEA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A SHOWERY REGIME WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE ALASKA
MAINLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 172.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...120 121 129 130 132 138 140
                                        141 150 160 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1230 PM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011

AKZ121-030000-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A RIVER STATEMENT FOR THE
KENAI RIVER IN THE VICINITY OF SOLDOTNA.

WATER LEVELS ON THE KENAI RIVER AT THE STERLING HIGHWAY BRIDGE IN
SOLDOTNA RAPIDLY ROSE 4 FEET OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS DUE TO FREEZE-UP
ICE JAMMING ON THE KENAI RIVER. THE ICE JAM IS LIKELY JUST DOWN
RIVER FROM THE SOLDOTNA BRIDGE.

THE CURRENT COLD SNAP WHICH IS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT ICE GROWTH ON
THE RIVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR FLOODING AND DAMAGE FROM ICE MOVEMENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE KENAI RIVER FREEZE-UP PROCESS
WORKS ITS WAY UPSTREAM. OWNERS OF RIVERSIDE STRUCTURES SUCH AS DOCKS
LANDINGS OR BANKSIDE STAIRCASES SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
PROPERTY FROM DAMAGE.

THIS STATEMENT WILL NOT BE UPDATED UNLESS CHANGING CONDITIONS
WARRANT.