Blizzard Watch 19, NWS Anchorage, AK

362 
WWAK41 PAFC 290832
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1132 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

AKZ121-292145-
/X.EXT.PAFC.WW.Y.0029.111130T0100Z-111130T0900Z/
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KENAI...SOLDOTNA...HOMER...
COOPER LANDING
1132 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM
TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF NINILCHIK...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM
TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST TUESDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATION...SOUTH OF NINILCHIK AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ALONG 
  KACHEMAK BAY. 

* SNOW...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE HEAVY AT
  TIMES INTO LATE TUESDAY EVENING. SNOW SHOULD BECOME MIXED WITH
  RAIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED 
  IN HEAVY SNOWFALL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

AKZ125-292145-
/X.EXT.PAFC.BZ.A.0019.111130T0300Z-111130T1200Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
1132 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...BLIZZARD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE VALLEY...

THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. 

* LOCATION...TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE VALLEY.

* SNOW...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...POSSIBLY REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

* WIND...EAST 35 TO 65 MPH.

* TIMING...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SUCH AS WALKING AND/OR DRIVING MAY
  BE SEVERELY RESTRICTED OR IMPOSSIBLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$

AKZ145-292145-
/X.EXT.PAFC.WS.A.0002.111130T0300Z-111201T0600Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
1132 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTH AND WEST OF TALKEETNA...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTH AND WEST OF TALKEETNA. 

* LOCATION...NORTH AND WEST OF TALKEETNA.

* SNOW...8 TO 16 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY TUESDAY 
  EVENING AND BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD 
  DIMINISH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...
THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THIS WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

942 
WWAK41 PAFC 291400
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST TUE NOV 29 2011

AKZ125-300300-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0019.111130T0300Z-111130T1200Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0041.111130T0300Z-111130T1200Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
500 AM AKST TUE NOV 29 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY FOR TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE VALLEY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 


* LOCATION...EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE VALLEY.

* SNOW...2 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATION UP TO 10 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

* WIND...EAST 40 TO 55 MPH.

* TIMING...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ145-300300-
/X.UPG.PAFC.WS.A.0002.111130T0300Z-111201T0600Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.WS.W.0004.111130T0300Z-111201T0600Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
500 AM AKST TUE NOV 29 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 9 PM AKST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM AKST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 


* LOCATION...NORTH AND WEST OF TALKEETNA.

* SNOW...8 TO 16 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING
  AND BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH
  LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...
THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THIS WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&


$$

AKZ141-300300-
/X.NEW.PAFC.WW.Y.0030.111130T0900Z-111201T0000Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLENNALLEN...EUREKA...MCCARTHY...
PAXSON...SLANA
500 AM AKST TUE NOV 29 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 3 PM AKST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 3 PM AKST WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATION...THROUGHOUT THE COPPER RIVER BASIN ALTHOUGH HEAVIEST
  AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE.

* SNOW...3 TO 9 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND
  SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.


&&

$$

AKZ121-300300-
/X.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0029.111130T0100Z-111130T0900Z/
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KENAI...SOLDOTNA...HOMER...
COOPER LANDING
500 AM AKST TUE NOV 29 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT SOUTH OF NINILCHIK...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT.

* LOCATION...SOUTH OF NINILCHIK AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND KACHEMAK
  BAY.

* SNOW...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE HEAVY AT
  TIMES INTO LATE TUESDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL BECOME MIXED WITH
  RAIN AND THEN END AROUND MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED 
  IN HEAVY SNOWFALL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A PROGRESSIVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS
IN PLACE WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE ALASKA
REGION AND A FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY JET ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC.
CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION AT THE MOMENT. A WEAK
LOW NEAR CAPE SUCKLING IS HEADED INLAND ACROSS THE EASTERN COPPER
RIVER BASIN. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING SOUTHWEST ALASKA
AND ENTERING COOK INLET AND THE WESTERN GULF. KENAI RADAR SHOWS
SOME WEAK RETURNS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER THE SOUTHERN INLET.
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING IS SINKING
SOUTHWARD AND WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC
LOW TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW RAPIDLY
DEEPENING WHICH IS BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER PATTERN. THIS
IN TURN WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO CURVE NORTHWARD AND BECOME THE MAJOR
WEATHER MAKER ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE 12Z NAM IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH TRACK
OF PACIFIC LOW AS IT MOVES TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE TO SOUTHCENTRAL ON WEDNESDAY. THE 18Z
NAM IS COMING IN AND APPEARS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE REST OF THE
MODELS...BUT IS STILL A LITTLE FURTHR WEST. THE TRACK OF THE FRONTAL
WAVE IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT TO WIND AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND IS THE AREA OF BIGGEST FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. FOR NOW WILL TREND HEAVILY
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE AS IT CROSSES SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH
WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH TO WEST SLOPING FACES
OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK
BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE AFFECTS OF THE MAJOR STORM HEADED TOWARD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE GULF
AND SOUTHCENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED EXPECT A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMICS
TO PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIPITATION....ESPECIALLY IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND REGION AND SUSITNA VALLEY. THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY OF
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER
THE INTERIOR KENAI PENINSULA. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN
ARM WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BLIZZARD BEFORE WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY
AND PLAN TO ISSUE A HEAVY SNOW WATCH WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY COMPLICATES THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
OVER THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND ANCHORAGE BECAUSE THERE WON'T
BE NEARLY AS MUCH DOWNSLOPE DRYING AS IS TYPICAL WITH A MORE EASTERLY
WIND. IN FACT...IN THESE SCENARIOS THERE CAN BE QUITE A BIT OF QPF
IN THE KACHEMAK BAY AREA AS WELL AS ALONG THE INLET. WILL CONSIDER
ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR THIS AREA.

PRECIPITATION AND WIND WILL BE RE-INFORCED ON WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE
MOVES UP THE FRONT TO SOUTHCENTRAL. THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FRONTAL POSITION AND TRACK OF THE WAVE. IF IT WERE TO TRACK WEST
OF ANCHORAGE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SOME WIND MAKING IT DOWN TO THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL AS WELL. THIS WOULD ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE NOW LEANING TOWARD
TRACKING THIS WAVE TOWARD PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WHICH MEANS A LOT
LESS WIND FOR TURNAGAIN ARM AND ANCHORAGE AND LESS INTRUSION OF
WARM AIR. WILL GO WITH THE LESS WINDY SCENARIO AND ADJUST FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY ONCE MODELS LOCK IN ON THIS FEATURE.

NO MATTER WHERE THE FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS THE FRONT ITSELF WILL STILL
CROSS SOUTHCENTRAL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY GIVING EVERYONE A SHOT
OF SNOW. AS THE FRONT REACHES THE VALDEZ AREA AND FLOW BEGINS TO
COME AROUND MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THERE IS GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IN VALDEZ ALONG WITH A BLIZZARD THROUGH
THOMPSON PASS. STILL TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANYTHING FOR THERE...BUT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE SOMETHING WITH TOMORROW MORNING'S FORECAST PACKAGE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE PACIFIC LOW AS IT MOVES TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE AVERAGE POSITION OF THE DIFFERENT
MODELS FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL REMAIN ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE LOW AND WILL EXPERIENCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
THE FORECAST ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY REGION WILL BE MUCH MORE
VARIED AND COMPLICATED WITH THE LOW TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH IT.
WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE WHEN SNOW FIRST ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON EXPECT A SHORT PERIOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NORTH AND
WEST OF KING SALMON. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD ARRIVE BY EVENING TO
WARM UP TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVE VISIBILITIES. AREAS NORTH AND WEST
OF DILLINGHAM WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL SNOW WHILE EAST OF THERE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. WILL
ISSUE A BLIZZARD WARNING...BUT HIGHLIGHT THE OTHER IMPACTS IN THE
FORECAST AND OVERVIEW PORTION OF THE BLIZZARD STATEMENT. ARCTIC AIR
WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK IN AS THE LOW HEADS INLAND WEDNESDAY AND
CHANGE ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PACIFIC LOW WILL POSE MAINLY A WIND THREAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA/EASTERN BERING SEA AS
IT MOVES THROUGH. AIR WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS RAIN. A SERIES OF WEAKER SYSTEMS WILL THEN AFFECT THE
ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA THROUGH MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK AS A MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN PUSHES THE JET WELL SOUTH OF THIS REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON FURTHER
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH DAYS
4 THROUGH 7. A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
TO THE YUKON WITH A CORRESPONDINGLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH FROM THE BERING
SEA TO NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS WILL SET UP A STORM TRACK FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA. AREAS EAST OF HERE WILL
LIKELY SEE A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP WHILE THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN BERING
WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...155.
         GALE WARNING 120 130 132 150 160 165 170 171 172 175 176
                      179 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB NOV 11