Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Aberdeen, SD

779 
WWUS53 KABR 030329
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1029 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

SDC041-065-117-119-030400-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-110603T0400Z/
SULLY SD-HUGHES SD-DEWEY SD-STANLEY SD-
929 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
STANLEY...SOUTH CENTRAL DEWEY...NORTHWESTERN HUGHES AND SOUTHWESTERN
SULLY COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM MDT/1100 PM CDT/...

AT 924 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HAYES...OR 33 MILES WEST OF FORT PIERRE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CHANTLER CREEK REC AREA AROUND 945 PM MDT...
  MISSION RIDGE AND OAHE MISSION REC AREA AROUND 1050 PM CDT...
  COW CREEK REC AREA AND SPRING CREEK REC AREA AROUND 1055 PM CDT...
  OKOBOJO CREEK REC AREA AROUND 1100 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4435 10116 4464 10117 4488 10088 4458 10033
      4416 10099 4416 10116 4417 10118 4431 10118
TIME...MOT...LOC 0329Z 230DEG 43KT 4446 10098
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN

$$
PARKIN

393 
WWUS53 KABR 030353
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1053 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

SDC041-065-117-119-030400-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-110603T0400Z/
SULLY SD-HUGHES SD-DEWEY SD-STANLEY SD-
953 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
STANLEY...SOUTH CENTRAL DEWEY...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN HUGHES AND
SOUTHWESTERN SULLY COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM MDT/1100 PM CDT/...

AT 946 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10
MILES SOUTH OF MISSION RIDGE...OR 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT
PIERRE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

IN ADDITION...AT 1030 PM CDT /930 PM MDT/ QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS 
REPORTED 6 MILES WEST OF HAYES. AT 1042 PM CDT /942 PM MDT/ 60 MPH 
WINDS WERE REPORTED 6 MILES EAST OF HAYES WITH THIS STORM.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OKOBOJO CREEK REC AREA AND COW CREEK REC AREA AROUND 1100 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 10078 4456 10114 4488 10088 4458 10033
TIME...MOT...LOC 0351Z 230DEG 43KT 4458 10075
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$
PARKIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
246 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN
RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BRINGING MOISTURE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO ALL OF THE CWA. H7 TEMPS AT 13-14C HAS CAPPED ANY
CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THIS POINT...AND SHOULD BE THE
TREND UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WHEN COLD AIR ADVECTION ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...A PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA BY 2Z AND SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. FOR ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ML CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG...AND 40-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE EVENING IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MID MORNING.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE
DAKOTAS WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INTO THE CWA. ON SATURDAY...H5 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG RIDGE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
SHOULD CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY. WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER DURING THE EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...MOST MODELS HAVE STABLE HIGH PRESSURE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WITH RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOSING UP THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BASICALLY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO SHOW UP AROUND OR AFTER 00Z MONDAY...AND STICK AROUND OFF AND
ON EACH OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE THAT A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE OVER THE REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE OFF OF. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES DO NOT APPEAR TO WARM SO MUCH THAT
ALL CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE SQUELCHED. RATHER...CONVECTION MAY BE
MORE AN EVENING/OVERNIGHT TYPE OF OCCURRENCE WHILE HIGHER
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO PART WAYS...WITH
THE GFS BEING NOTABLY FASTER AT BRINGING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY NEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION
BASICALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY...LEAVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DRY DAYS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
AND DOES NOT BRING SAID SHORT-WAVE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
CHANCES UP INTO THE REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS APPROACH WAS TO LEAVE SOME POPS IN EVERY FORECAST PERIOD
IN ORDER TO PLAY THE FENCE UNTIL BETTER INTER-MODEL SOLUTION
AGREEMENT CAN BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE ON A SLOW AND
STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE ADVENT OF THIS NEXT
WARM FRONT. THEN...ONCE THE SHORT-WAVE TROF WORKS
THROUGH...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL DOWN AGAIN FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE
OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR FLYING WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS ACROSS THE KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS...EXCEPT IN ANY SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS/VISBIES
LIKELY TO DIP INTO MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES IN CONVECTION.

VFR FLYING WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO. IFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE KABR AND KATY
TERMINALS AT OR AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THESE TWO TERMINALS CAN ALSO EXPECT SUB-VFR FLYING
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

ALSO...BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO WORK
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WISE/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
455 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-031000-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
455 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011 /355 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE THE MISSOURI
RIVER WITHIN THIS FORECAST AREA...FROM THE NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER ALL THE WAY DOWN TO CHAMBERLAIN. THE MISSOURI RIVER
AT PIERRE IS NEARLY TWO AND A HALF FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS
DUE TO HIGH RELEASES OF WATER OUT OF GARRISON DAM IN NORTH DAKOTA
AND OAHE DAM NORTH OF PIERRE. SIGNIFICANTLY ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS
UP AND DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER ARE EXPECTED. THE RATE AT WHICH
WATER IS RELEASED FROM THESE DAMS IS GOING TO INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS...SO ADDITIONAL RIVER RISES SHOULD BE
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FEW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

MOHR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
812 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             8 S KELDRON             45.82N 101.81W
06/02/2011  E1.00 INCH       CORSON             SD   PUBLIC

&&

NWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
920 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             2 S MORRISTOWN          45.91N 101.72W
06/02/2011  E1.75 INCH       CORSON             SD   PUBLIC

            NSSL SHAVE REPORT...AVG EST 1 INCH...MAX EST 1.75 INCHES

&&

NWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
926 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             13 S KELDRON            45.75N 101.81W
06/02/2011  E1.25 INCH       CORSON             SD   PUBLIC

            NSSL SHAVE REPORT

0800 PM     HAIL             2 E KELDRON             45.93N 101.77W
06/02/2011  E1.00 INCH       CORSON             SD   PUBLIC

            NSSL SHAVE

0805 PM     HAIL             2 SSW MORRISTOWN        45.91N 101.73W
06/02/2011  E1.75 INCH       CORSON             SD   PUBLIC

            NSSL SHAVE REPORT

0817 PM     HAIL             11 S KELDRON            45.77N 101.81W
06/02/2011  E1.00 INCH       CORSON             SD   PUBLIC

            NSSL SHAVE REPORT

&&

NWS