Red Flag Warning 18, NWS Albuquerque, NM

878 
WWUS85 KABQ 160940
RFWABQ

FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT TODAY FOR AN
AREA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAS VEGAS TO SANTA ROSA AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM WILLARD TO VAUGHN DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM THURSDAY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BELOW SIGNIFICANT
SNOWPACK DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON THURSDAY FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

.CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY FOR AN AREA
TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE FOUND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAS VEGAS TO SANTA ROSA AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM WILLARD TO VAUGHN. THIS INCLUDES THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA ROSA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
CRITICALLY LOW COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE
AND MAX TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT WILL AFFECT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
THE MORE CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHILE A FEW HOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS...ESPECIALLY
LOWER ELEVATIONS. A COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY...STRONG WINDS
AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD.

NMZ103-104-107-108-162130-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0017.110316T1900Z-110317T0200Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0018.110317T1700Z-110318T0300Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
340 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT
THURSDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM MDT THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
11 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY. 

* WINDS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR HIGHER WITH GUSTS
  BETWEEN 35 TO 40 MPH TODAY. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...EXPECT HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 7 TO 12 PERCENT
  EACH DAY DURING THE MAIN CRITICAL PERIOD.

* TIMING...MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN 2 PM 
  TO 6 PM MDT. MOST CRITICAL AREA FOUND ALONG A LINE FROM CLINES 
  CORNERS TO SANTA ROSA ON WEDNESDAY BUT EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF 
  THE ESTANCIA BASIN AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

NMZ105-106-109-162130-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.A.0016.110317T1700Z-110318T0300Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS/WESTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE-SOCORRO BLM/ABZ-GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 109
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/SOUTHWEST CIBOLA NF AND SOCORRO BLM/ABQ-
GLZ-
340 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

* WINDS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS 
  BETWEEN 35 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...EXPECT HUMIDITIES OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS 
  ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. 

* TIMING...THE MOST CRITICAL PERIOD WOULD BE FOUND BETWEEN 3 TO 6
  PM MDT...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY
  AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

$$

DPORTER

194 
WWUS85 KABQ 162123
RFWABQ

FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
323 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TO 8 PM MDT TODAY FOR AN
AREA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAS VEGAS TO SANTA ROSA AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM WILLARD TO VAUGHN DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM THURSDAY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BELOW SIGNIFICANT
SNOWPACK DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON THURSDAY FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

.LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS AREA WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LAS VEGAS TO SANTA ROSA AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLARD TO
VAUGHN. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THIS
AREA WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 

A MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. A FEW HOURS
AND MORE LOCALIZED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 FOCUSED
ACROSS LOWER PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS FOUND WITHIN THE FAR WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. 

NMZ103-104-107-108-170200-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-110317T0200Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0018.110317T1700Z-110318T0300Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
323 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT
THURSDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING.
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT
THURSDAY. 

* WINDS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR HIGHER WITH GUSTS
  BETWEEN 35 TO 40 MPH TODAY. STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 40TO
  45 MPH EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...EXPECT HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
  LOWER TEENS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. SIMILAR READINGS FOR
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 

* TIMING...MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS TODAY WILL REMAIN THROUGH 6
  PM. ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CENTER
  BETWEEN 2 TO 6 PM MDT ON THURSDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

NMZ105-106-109-170200-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.A.0016.110317T1700Z-110318T0300Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS/WESTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE-SOCORRO BLM/ABZ-GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 109
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/SOUTHWEST CIBOLA NF AND SOCORRO BLM/ABQ-
GLZ-
323 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

* WINDS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS 
  BETWEEN 35 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...EXPECT HUMIDITIES OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS 
  ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. 

* TIMING...THE MOST CRITICAL PERIOD WOULD BE FOUND BETWEEN 3 TO 5 PM
  MDT...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY
  AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

$$
50

204 
WWUS85 KABQ 170145
RFWABQ

FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
745 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM THURSDAY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BELOW SIGNIFICANT
SNOWPACK DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON THURSDAY FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DUE TO
STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

.WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER TO 30 PERCENT OR BETTER IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...A MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. A FEW HOURS AND MORE LOCALIZED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 FOCUSED ACROSS LOWER PORTIONS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS FOUND WITHIN THE FAR WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

NMZ103-104-107-108-171400-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-110317T0200Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0018.110317T1700Z-110318T0300Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
745 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT
THURSDAY...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY. 

* WINDS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
  BETWEEN 40 TO 45 MPH EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...EXPECT HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
  LOWER TEENS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
  BETWEEN 2 TO 6 PM MDT ON THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

NMZ105-106-109-171400-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.A.0016.110317T1700Z-110318T0300Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS/WESTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE-SOCORRO BLM/ABZ-GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 109
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/SOUTHWEST CIBOLA NF AND SOCORRO BLM/ABQ-
GLZ-
745 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

* WINDS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS 
  BETWEEN 35 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...EXPECT HUMIDITIES OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS 
  ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. 

* TIMING...THE MOST CRITICAL PERIOD WOULD BE FOUND BETWEEN 3 TO 
  5 PM MDT...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE 
  VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

$$

52

601 
WWUS85 KABQ 171206
RFWABQ

FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
606 AM MDT THU MAR 17 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL EARLY EVENING FOR
WESTERN PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
SANDIA/MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

.A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT
ENABLING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME MODERATELY STRONG. WARM SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 40 TO 45 MPH IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
SOAR 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITIES WILL
ALSO PLUMMET TO THE LOW TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

NMZ105-106-109-171315-
/O.CAN.KABQ.FW.A.0016.110317T1700Z-110318T0300Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS/WESTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE-SOCORRO BLM/ABZ-GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 109
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/SOUTHWEST CIBOLA NF AND SOCORRO BLM/ABQ-
GLZ-
606 AM MDT THU MAR 17 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS CANCELLED THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH. 

WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLD FOR 4 OR 5 HOURS
TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...BUT HUMIDITIES SHOULD ONLY BRIEFLY DROP TO CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS IN THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE...CRITICAL HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT WIND SPEEDS MAY ONLY
BRIEFLY TOUCH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. SINCE ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ANY
LOCATION...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

NMZ103-104-107-108-180200-
/O.EXT.KABQ.FW.W.0018.110317T1600Z-110318T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
606 AM MDT THU MAR 17 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
MDT THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 

* WINDS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
  BETWEEN 40 TO 45 MPH EXPECTED MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...EXPECT HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
  LOWER TEENS.

* TIMING...THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
  BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM MDT. HOWEVER...CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY
  BEGIN EARLIER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE WIND SPEEDS MAY
  STRENGTHEN EARLIER IN THE MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

44

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT TUE MAR 15 2011

.DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING IN THE NORTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING
CLOSE TO WHAT HIGHS WERE OUT THERE ON MONDAY. MODELS FORECASTING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL BORDER COUNTIES NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER LATER TONIGHT AS LEE
SURFACE TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP. SKY GRIDS ALREADY HAD THIS
COVERED.

WEDNESDAY TO BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AS THE LEE TROUGH BECOMES
BETTER DEFINED AND WESTERLY GRADIENT ALOFT STRENGTHENS A BIT. ANY
EXISTING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR WIND ADVY CRITERIA TO BE
MET...GREATER CONCERNS ARE RELATED TO FIRE WEATHER. STRONGER WINDS
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST
CO/SOUTHWEST KS. HOWEVER...THERE ISN/T MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
AT THE SURFACE...SO MAIN COMPONENT WILL HAVE TO BE THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN. SOME OF THE STRONGER H7 WINDS APPEAR TO
OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY PER THE NAM...BUT THE GFS WINDS
SEEM A BIT STRONGER OVERALL INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. H5 WINDS RANGE
FROM 40 TO 60KT ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTTY
WIND ADVY CRITERIA MET ON THURSDAY BUT AGAIN FIRE WEATHER TO BE THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.

IN ADDITION...MODELS FORECAST A POCKET OF INSTABILITY OVER FAR NW NM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A MUCH GREATER AREA ON FRIDAY STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. SHALLOW COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH THE
INSTABILITY. CONSEQUENTLY WENT AHEAD AND SPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS TO THE TEXAS
BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAKE A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL RETURN TO
SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD SET UP
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE MOISTURE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. NEW MEXICO LOOKS TO
BE IN THE DRY AND WINDY SECTOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE IS STILL A SIGNATURE SHOWING UP WITHIN THE MODEL
FORECASTS FOR A LOW CIG INTRUSION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...PRIMARILY AFFECTING CURRY COUNTY AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR JUST IN CASE IT AFFECTS TCC. WINDS WILL GO ON
THE INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STILL EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT AND EXTENDED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER PERIOD THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BOTH IN TERMS OF
FIRE WEATHER GROWING CONDITIONS AND LIGHTNING POSSIBILITIES. MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY....THEN ENCOMPASS
SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER GROWING
EVENT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD AND CURRENTLY HAS
SIMILARITIES TO THE EVENT THAT AFFECTED THE STATE FEB 26TH/27TH.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH FOR DRYLINE STORMS ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS COULD REPRESENT A CLASSIC LIGHTNING BUST
EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THAT.

HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN POOR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT BE MODERATE TO GOOD MOST OTHER
PLACES. PERHAPS EXCELLENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DUE TO A
SHALLOW MOISTURE INTRUSION THERE LATE TONIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. DECIDED TO UPGRADE
THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR ZONES 103 AND 104. GETTING A FEW MORE
CRITICAL GRIDS IN THE LAS VEGAS AREA. THE AREA OF CRITICAL GRID
BOXES WITHIN ZONE 104 IS PRETTY SMALL BUT DIDNT WANT TO CONFUSE
THINGS ESPECIALLY SINCE ALL FOUR ZONES WILL HAVE A WARNING FOR
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MORE ROBUST ACROSS THE EAST. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 21 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE EAST.

HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PRETTY POOR ACROSS THE
EAST AND SOUTH. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
GROWTH CONDITIONS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON THURSDAY. PERHAPS EVEN
EXTREME CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN LAS VEGAS TO SANTA ROSA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A
WARNING DUE TO A HIGHER CONFIDENCE EVENT. ALSO DECIDED TO THROW
PORTIONS OF ZONE 106...109 AND 105 INTO A WATCH ALTHOUGH MAINLY
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MORE LOCALIZED FOR ZONES 109 AND 105. CAN SEE
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY SEEING 2 TO 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THERE TOO. THUS THE WATCH. NORTHWEST AREAS WILL SEE SOME
COOLING AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. PERHAPS EVEN SOME SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION. ALSO HAVE THUNDER DEPICTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
LATER THURSDAY.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL TAKE AIM ON NEW MEXICO FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DOWN DAY AS THE
UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE FLOW DONT JIVE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT
SOME BREEZINESS DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER GROWTH
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THIS
AREA WOULD BE LIMITED IN AREA AND TIME. THE MODELS ARE ALSO PRETTY
BULLISH WITH BRINGING MOISTURE FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY SO REFLECTED THIS IN THE LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST.
THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR DRY LINE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EAST
LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT
SITUATION AS THE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE BULLISH WITH THIS
SCENARIO. ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT ARE DRY AND ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
LIGHTNING IGNITIONS.

THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE WEST COAST
TROUGH FOR THE SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD THUS CRITICAL AND PERHAPS EVEN
EXTREME CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE STRONGER
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY WOULD BE COMBINED WITH A VERY DISTINCT MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT...ABUNDANT INSTABILITY IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY WARM AND ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ON SUNDAY. MORE COOLING DUE TO A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SIMILARITIES TO THE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER GROWTH EVENT
THAT AFFECTED PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO FEB 26TH AND 27TH.
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT PROBABLY LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD BASED ON CURRENT
MODEL PROJECTIONS.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  33  70  39  68 /   0   0   0  30
DULCE...........................  26  64  33  63 /   0   0   5  40
CUBA............................  27  66  35  66 /   0   0   0  10
GALLUP..........................  24  68  34  64 /   0   0   0  10
EL MORRO........................  23  67  31  63 /   0   0   0  10
GRANTS..........................  25  70  33  70 /   0   0   0   5
QUEMADO.........................  26  71  34  71 /   0   0   0   5
GLENWOOD........................  33  77  37  76 /   0   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................  23  60  29  57 /   5   0   5  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  35  66  40  65 /   0   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  30  67  36  67 /   0   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  26  64  33  64 /   5   0   0  10
RED RIVER.......................  20  58  29  56 /   5   0   5  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  22  61  31  60 /   5   0   5   5
TAOS............................  25  67  34  67 /   0   0   0  10
MORA............................  29  71  37  70 /   0   0   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  26  74  31  74 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE........................  31  70  36  69 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  32  72  37  73 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  38  72  43  72 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  41  74  45  75 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  33  76  40  77 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  35  75  41  76 /   0   0   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  32  78  38  79 /   0   0   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  36  74  41  75 /   0   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  41  79  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  35  66  40  69 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  37  70  42  72 /   0   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  28  73  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  33  70  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  38  75  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  40  77  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  37  69  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  28  75  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  27  77  37  78 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  29  76  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  32  74  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  38  77  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  35  75  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  36  81  43  86 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  36  82  43  86 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  37  85  44  88 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  37  85  42  87 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  39  86  43  88 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  39  87  44  89 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  39  87  45  92 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  38  80  42  83 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  37  74  42  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ105-106-109.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
559 AM MDT TUE MAR 15 2011

CORRECTED THE SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

NMZ501>540-161200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
559 AM MDT TUE MAR 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEDNESDAY...WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS MAY ALSO REACH CRITICAL
WIND AND HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS. PLEASE REVIEW THE LATEST RED FLAG
WARNING AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AREAWIDE.
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO...SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
PATCH OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. PLEASE REVIEW THE LATEST
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

SATURDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP AREAWIDE AS
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN. GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MANZANO...SANDIA AND SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ALSO...THE DRY LINE
MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS NEAR THE BORDER WITH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SPRING MAY BEGIN WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH COULD BE
COMMON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS FOR COUNTIES ALONG NEW MEXICOS EASTERN BORDER.

44