Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST MON AUG 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED EARLY AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION...WITH VERY TALL VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND LITTLE TO NO
MOVEMENT. HEAVY RAINERS. SO FAR RELYING ON MERGERS AND OUTFLOWS FOR
ANY VALLEY ACTIVITY. EVEN UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINAL SO NOT MUCH
CIRRUS BLOWOFF INTERFERING WITH VALLEY INSOLATION. AS THE VALLEYS
CONTINUE TO COOK THE CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR BETTER VALLEY AND
LOWER DESERT PENETRATION...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPTS
SOLIDLY IN THE 60S. GOOD INSTABILITY ON THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING
BUT LITTLE SHEAR AND OVERALL WEAK STEERING FLOW FOR STORM MOTION.
INITIAL STORM EVOLUTION WILL SEE STORM MOVEMENT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 MPH...BUT MATURE STORMS WILL TEND TO THEN SIT IN
PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY OUTFLOWS FAVORED FROM THE LEAN. EASY MOUNTAIN
STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN FROM RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVING STORMS. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO PROPAGATE DEEP
INTO THE LOWER WESTERN DESERTS LATER.

TUESDAY...WEAK INVERTED INFLECTION TRIES TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH
CENTER AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...THIS COULD
HELP PROVIDE FOCUS AND MORE ORGANIZATION FOR STORMS WITH GOOD TIMING
COINCIDING WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE HIGH CENTER WOBBLES BACK WESTWARD
UNDER HIGHER LATITUDE INFLUENCES BY MID WEEK. IF IT RECONSOLIDATES
TOO FAR SOUTH THIS WOULD INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT A BIT BUT RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY NORTH AND ALLOW CONTINUED DIURNAL
CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERHAPS EVEN CREATING A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG OUTFLOW FROM
THE RIM WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SOME SIGNS OF A DEEP ENOUGH WEST COAST TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK TO SHUNT MOISTURE EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
RETROGRADES SOME SOUTHERN BRANCH ENERGY OFF THE WEST COAST AND DRAWS
TROPICAL MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH NORTH OF
THE AREA. THERE'S ALWAYS A "HOWEVER" WHEN YOU START PEEKING AT THE
FIRST SIGNS OF TRANSITION PATTERNS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD-SCT TSRA/SHRA IN THE VALLEYS...AND SCT-NUMEROUS
TSRA/SHRA IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT SCT CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 5-7K FT AGL AND SCT-BKN
CLOUD DECKS OF 10-12K FT AG...WITH SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
12 KTS. WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS EXPECTED AND
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS. AFT 03Z TUESDAY...THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DIMINISH...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/SHRA WILL
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DIMINISHING CLOUDINESS IS ALSO
EXPECTED AFT 06Z TUESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

MEYER

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

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