Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST MON AUG 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO BRING MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPTS SOLIDLY IN
THE 60S. GOOD INSTABILITY ON THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING BUT LITTLE
SHEAR AND OVERALL WEAK STEERING FLOW FOR STORM MOTION. INITIAL STORM
EVOLUTION WILL SEE STORM MOVEMENT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST UP
TO 10 MPH...BUT MATURE STORMS WILL TEND TO THEN SIT IN PLACE WITH
SOUTHERLY OUTFLOWS FAVORED FROM THE LEAN. EASY MOUNTAIN STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN FROM RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING
STORMS. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO PROPAGATE DEEP INTO THE
LOWER WESTERN DESERTS LATER.

TUESDAY...WEAK INVERTED INFLECTION TRIES TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH
CENTER AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...THIS COULD
HELP PROVIDE FOCUS AND MORE ORGANIZATION FOR STORMS WITH GOOD TIMING
COINCIDING WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE HIGH CENTER WOBBLES BACK WESTWARD
UNDER HIGHER LATITUDE INFLUENCES BY MID WEEK. IF IT RECONSOLIDATES
TOO FAR SOUTH THIS WOULD INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT A BIT BUT RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY NORTH AND ALLOW CONTINUED DIURNAL
CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERHAPS EVEN CREATING A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG OUTFLOW FROM
THE RIM WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SOME SIGNS OF A DEEP ENOUGH WEST COAST TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK TO SHUNT MOISTURE EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
RETROGRADES SOME SOUTHERN BRANCH ENERGY OFF THE WEST COAST AND DRAWS
TROPICAL MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH NORTH OF
THE AREA. THERE'S ALWAYS A "HOWEVER" WHEN YOU START PEEKING AT THE
FIRST SIGNS OF TRANSITION PATTERNS.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING WITH
SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING LATE MORNING INTO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 6-9K FT AGL AFTER 19Z. MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGEST TSRA. OTHERWISE...TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WIND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

MEYER

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1157 AM MST MON AUG 23 2010

AZZ019-029>035-241800-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1157 AM MST MON AUG 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE VALLEYS AND SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE
DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON