Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 PM MST THU JAN 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A DAMAGING WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGH WINDS...HEAVY PRECIPITATION...AND
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL THEN BE A BREAK
BEFORE A MUCH COLDER BUT WEAKER WINTER STORM MOVES OFF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND ACROSS ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. IMPROVING WEATHER CAN BE
ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR MOSAIC FROM AROUND ARIZONA SHOWS A STRONG
LINE OF SHOWERS THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE PHOENIX METRO
AREA AND THEN INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY AND CENTRAL PIMA
COUNTY...WHICH INCLUDES THE TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION. THIS LINE OF
STORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT
THROUGH 10 PM MST FOR PINAL AND ALL OF PIMA COUNTY. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE TUCSON
METRO AREA AS WELL AS AREAS TO THE EAST.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
TO THE EAST WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WIND
GUSTS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH GUST POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 70 MPH OR MORE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. WE CURRENTLY HAVE
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AS
WELL AS SOUTHWESTERN PINAL COUNTY UNTIL 930 PM MST. A SMALL STREAM
FLOOD ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 1015
PM MST.

SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF TUCSON. THE GRIDS AND TEXT
FORECAST PRODUCTS STILL SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. HIGH WIND WARNING AND BLIZZARD WARNING
CONTINUE IN EFFECT AND LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. FOR DETAILS REGARDING
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
SECTION BELOW. OTHERWISE...SIGNIFICANT POP AND/OR TEMP CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST ARE NOT PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING HIGH WINDS THIS EVENING AND CEILINGS DOWN TO 2-4
KFT...OBSCURING MOUNTAINS. BKN-OVC CEILINGS WITH MVFR/MTN
OBSCURATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AREA WIDE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES AT
TERMINAL SITES THRU 15Z FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT VISIBILITIES
TO BE AROUND 2-6SM IN RA/SHRA AT TIMES...WITH ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE
07Z AND 12Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WHILE AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA TO EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 40 MPH...WITH WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 58 MPH.
THESE WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SUBSIDING SOME IN THE WESTERN
DESERTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THESE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WELL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO SOME DEGREE FRIDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE HIGHER
THAN WHAT IS TYPICALLY SEEN. HOWEVER...IT MERITS SAYING AGAIN...THIS
WILL BE A FAIRLY WET WEEKEND...WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO START AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...SINCE 1985...THE HIGHEST WIND GUST RECORDED IN THE MONTH
OF JANUARY AT TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 55 MPH ON JANUARY 5
1995.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WEATHER SITUATION CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING WIND...PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. PER NESDIS SAT PRECIP DISCUSSION...UNLIKE THE OTHER
STORMS IN THIS SERIES...THE STORM NOW BEARING DOWN ON AZ...DESPITE
TRENDING A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...HAS TAPPED SOLIDLY INTO THE
SUBTROPICS WITH PRECIP WATERS IN EXCESS OF 1.3" NOW AIMED RIGHT AT
SE AZ. SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN ABOVE 8KFT...AND WITH 60-80KT 850MB
FLOW DIRECTED THE SW FACING SLOPES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN
FALLING ON THE MOUNTAIN SNOWPACKS. HAVE HAD SOME PROBLEMS IN SABINO
CANYON ALREADY...WITH HIGH FLOWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON OUT OF OUR
OTHER MOUNTAINS. LATER THIS EVENING...THE VALLEYS WILL GET INTO THE
ACTION AS INTENSE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL PROBABLY ADJUST MOUNTAIN QPFS UP A
LITTLE MORE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...BUT WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAINS OF
1-2.5 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED -- HEAVIEST NORTH AND WEST...
LIGHTEST IN RAIN SHADOWED AREAS OF COCHISE COUNTY. MOUNTAIN SNOW
TOTALS STILL LOOK EXCELLENT...WITH THE LATER SNOW LEVEL CRASH
GETTING CANCELLED OUT BY THE EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES WE WILL SEE WITH
THE FRONT -- PERHAPS OVER 3-4 INCHES/HOUR. WILL ADJUST THE BLIZZARD
WARNING START TIME A LITTLE LATER...BUT SEVERAL HOURS OF HIGH
WINDS...ZERO VISIBILITIES AND HEAVY FALLING/BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 7KFT...WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS GETTING DOWN AS
LOW AS 5500-6000FT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI MORNING.

THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING WIND THROUGH EARLY FRI
MORNING. WE HAVE ALREADY HAD WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ROOFTOPS...WITH 35-50 MPH IN THE VALLEYS AND NOW SOME
ROOF DAMAGE REPORTS ON THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION. THESE GUSTS WILL
BECOME STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT AS BANDS OF SHOWERS FILL IN THIS
EVENING. WINDS MAY ACTUALLY LULL A BIT AFTER DARK AS WE TRY TO
DECOUPLE...BUT THEN THE STRONG FRONT WILL OVERTURN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND BRING US THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE EVENT -- PROBABLY HURRICANE
FORCE GUSTS IN THE FAVORED MOUNTAINS IN LEE SLOPE AREAS. GFS HAS
JOINED THE NAM IN BRINGING THE FRONT IN W PIMA AROUND 07Z...
KTUS/KOLS BY 10Z...AND KDUG/NM BORDER BY 13Z. IN ADDITION TO
MOMENTUM TRANSFER ISSUES WITH ANY TSTMS TONIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE 0-1KM HELICITIES OVER 100 M2/S2 JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IF
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ENOUGH...SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND MINI
SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP. WILL OBVIOUSLY MONITOR THIS ADDITIONAL
THREAT. SWODY1 AND DY2 OUTLOOKS HIT EVERYTHING RIGHT ON THE HEAD.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A SLEEPER SHORT WAVE...WHICH ALL MODELS
ARE HANDLING SURPRISINGLY WELL IN THE 12Z RUNS. THIS STORM IS
ORIGINATING MUCH FARTHER N THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS AND WILL REMAIN
CUTOFF FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH BY THEN WILL BE SHUNTED INTO
THE PLAINS. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF ITS GULF OF AK ORIGINS...IT IS MUCH
COLDER AND WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT THE PLENTIFUL RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER US. ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS OUR
ONGOING STORM...THERE WILL BE SOME WIND WITH THIS AS WELL WITH MUCH
MORE EFFICIENT SNOW RATIOS...BOTH FROM AN ACCUMULATING AND BLOWING/
DRIFTING STANDPOINT. TAKING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND NAM
QPFS...WHICH INDICATE /0.25 VALLEYS TO 0.75 MOUNTAINS/...IT IS TIME
TO HOIST A NEW WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 4KFT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP WITH THIS NEXT ONE...SO NOT
ONLY COULD WE GET SOME THUNDERSNOW...BUT WITH THE BEST FORCING
PASSING THROUGH DURING THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD...SNOW LEVELS COULD GET
DRAGGED QUITE LOW. PREVIOUS SHIFT IDEA OF 3500FT LOOKS LIKE A
WINNER...ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE END UP WITH SOME
RAIN/SNOW PELLET MIX A LITTLE LOWER IF WE GET PARTICULARLY
CONVECTIVE. IN THE MOUNTAINS...OUR PRELIMINARY ACCUMULATION FORECAST
IS A BIT BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...BUT COMBINED WITH WIND/BLOWING/
DRIFTING AND WIND CHILLS...A WATCH IS CERTAINLY WARRANTED.

WE ARE GROWING A BIT MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE LATE TUE/WED SYSTEM.
THERE WILL BE ROOM FOR IT TO DIG AND BRIEFLY CLOSE OFF...ALTHOUGH
THE UPSTREAM FLOW IS LOOKING MORE PROGRESSIVE...SO TIMING WILL BE
HARDER TO PIN DOWN AND IT SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY. WE LIKE THE 20-40
POPS WE INHERITED FOR NOW.

THANKS TO OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES/CBRFC/SPC/USGS TUCSON/PIMA COUNTY
FC/EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTERS FOR ALL OF YOUR HELP AND REPORTS
SO FAR!

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING ZONES 29/31/32/33

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM FRI ZONES 19/30/35.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM FRI ZONES 29/31/32/33/34.

BLIZZARD WARNING 11 PM TONIGHT TO 11 AM FRI ZONES 19/30/33/34/35
ABOVE 7000 FT.

WINTER STORM WATCH FRI NIGHT TO SAT MORNING ZONES 19/29/30/33/34/35
ABOVE 4000 FT.

&&

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PUBLIC...PYTLAK/GLUECK/TURNER
FIRE WX/AVIATION...SMR

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1030 PM MST THU JAN 21 2010

AZZ019-030-034-035-230230-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1030 PM MST THU JAN 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE LAST IN A SERIES OF STORMS TO PASS THROUGH AREA THIS WEEK WILL
IMPACT SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE STORM WILL BRING
HIGH WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TONIGHT.

POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED... AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES. AREAS
AROUND SAFFORD WILL LIKELY BE SPARED THE HIGHER WINDS...BUT GUSTS TO
40 MPH CAN BE POSSIBLE.

WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD CAUSE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES
PARTICULARLY IN RURAL AREAS. THE WIND WILL ALSO CAUSE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS GENERALLY ABOVE
7000 FEET.

PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS...

HIGH WIND WARNING...SEE PHXNPWTWC OR WMO HEADER WWUS75 KTW BLIZZARD
WARNING...SEE PHXWSWTWC OR WMO HEADER WWUS45 KTWC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK...SEE PHXESFTWC OR WMO HEADER FGUS75 KTWC.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

GUSTY WINDS AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW NEAR 4000 FEET WITH A BRIEF DUSTING DOWN TO 3000 FEET EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD IMPACT SEVERAL COMMUNITIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ029-031>033-230230-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-
1030 PM MST THU JAN 21 2010

...TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM MST FRIDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE LAST IN A SERIES OF STORMS TO PASS THROUGH AREA THIS WEEK WILL
IMPACT SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE STORM WILL BRING
HIGH WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD CAUSE ISOLATED POWER
OUTAGES PARTICULARLY IN RURAL AREAS LIKE AJO...THE TOHONO OODHAM
NATION...KITT PEAK...MOUNT LEMMON AND THE SUMMER HAVEN AREAS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS...

HIGH WIND WARNING...PHXNPWTWC OR WMO HEADER WWUS75 KTWC EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK...PHXESFTWC OR WMO HEADER FGUS75 KTWC

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

GUSTY WINDS AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW NEAR 4000 FEET WITH A BRIEF DUSTING DOWN TO 3000 FEET EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD IMPACT AREAS MAINLY EASTERN PINAL
COUNTY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
528 PM MST THU JAN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S AJO                 32.37N 112.87W
01/21/2010  M94 MPH          PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CRASMUSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
530 PM MST THU JAN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 N TUCSON             32.41N 110.94W
01/21/2010                   PIMA               AZ   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PARKING AWNING DAMAGED AT APPARTMENT COMPLEX AT INA AND
            MONA LISA

&&

CRASMUSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
538 PM MST THU JAN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S AJO                 32.37N 112.87W
01/21/2010  E94.00 MPH       PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

0528 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 12 N TUCSON             32.41N 110.94W
01/21/2010                   PIMA               AZ   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PARKING AWNING DAMAGED AT APPARTMENT COMPLEX AT INA AND
            MONA LISA

&&

CRASMUSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1015 PM MST THU JAN 21 2010

AZZ029-032-033-220715-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ORACLE...PICACHO PEAK S. P....SELLS...
TUCSON...MARANA...GREEN VALLEY
1015 PM MST THU JAN 21 2010

TORNADO WATCH 8 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 1 AM MST THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ARIZONA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY

IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

PIMA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF HICKIWAN...GU VO... SELLS...GREEN
VALLEY...TUCSON.

IF YOU OBSERVE THREATENING WEATHER...DO NOT WAIT FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED...GO TO AN INTERIOR ROOM INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING.

STAY UP-TO-DATE BY LISTENING TO WEATHER RADIO ON THE PUBLIC SERVICE
BAND.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1021 PM MST THU JAN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 W TUCSON              32.24N 111.03W
01/21/2010                   PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN NEAR CONGRESS AND GRANDE

&&

GMOLLERE

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