Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
710 PM MST THU JAN 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A DAMAGING WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGH WINDS...HEAVY PRECIPITATION...AND
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL THEN BE A BREAK
BEFORE A MUCH COLDER BUT WEAKER WINTER STORM MOVES OFF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND ACROSS ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. IMPROVING WEATHER CAN BE
ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW A LINE OF STRONG
SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN PIMA COUNTY WEST OF AJO...HAVE DECIDED
TO INCLUDE ALL OF PIMA COUNTY IN THE TORNADO WATCH. PINAL COUNTY WAS
INCLUDED IN THE WATCH EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE STORMS NOW
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL INCLUDE ALL OF PIMA COUNTY AS WELL.
THE TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MST. WILL UPDATE ZONE
FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEATHER SITUATION CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING WIND...PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. PER NESDIS SAT PRECIP DISCUSSION...UNLIKE THE OTHER
STORMS IN THIS SERIES...THE STORM NOW BEARING DOWN ON AZ...DESPITE
TRENDING A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...HAS TAPPED SOLIDLY INTO THE
SUBTROPICS WITH PRECIP WATERS IN EXCESS OF 1.3" NOW AIMED RIGHT AT
SE AZ. SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN ABOVE 8KFT...AND WITH 60-80KT 850MB
FLOW DIRECTED THE SW FACING SLOPES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN
FALLING ON THE MOUNTAIN SNOWPACKS. HAVE HAD SOME PROBLEMS IN SABINO
CANYON ALREADY...WITH HIGH FLOWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON OUT OF OUR
OTHER MOUNTAINS. LATER THIS EVENING...THE VALLEYS WILL GET INTO THE
ACTION AS INTENSE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL PROBABLY ADJUST MOUNTAIN QPFS UP A
LITTLE MORE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...BUT WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAINS OF
1-2.5 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED -- HEAVIEST NORTH AND WEST...
LIGHTEST IN RAIN SHADOWED AREAS OF COCHISE COUNTY. MOUNTAIN SNOW
TOTALS STILL LOOK EXCELLENT...WITH THE LATER SNOW LEVEL CRASH
GETTING CANCELLED OUT BY THE EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES WE WILL SEE WITH
THE FRONT -- PERHAPS OVER 3-4 INCHES/HOUR. WILL ADJUST THE BLIZZARD
WARNING START TIME A LITTLE LATER...BUT SEVERAL HOURS OF HIGH
WINDS...ZERO VISIBILITIES AND HEAVY FALLING/BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 7KFT...WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS GETTING DOWN AS
LOW AS 5500-6000FT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI MORNING.

THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING WIND THROUGH EARLY FRI
MORNING. WE HAVE ALREADY HAD WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ROOFTOPS...WITH 35-50 MPH IN THE VALLEYS AND NOW SOME
ROOF DAMAGE REPORTS ON THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION. THESE GUSTS WILL
BECOME STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT AS BANDS OF SHOWERS FILL IN THIS
EVENING. WINDS MAY ACTUALLY LULL A BIT AFTER DARK AS WE TRY TO
DECOUPLE...BUT THEN THE STRONG FRONT WILL OVERTURN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND BRING US THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE EVENT -- PROBABLY HURRICANE
FORCE GUSTS IN THE FAVORED MOUNTAINS IN LEE SLOPE AREAS. GFS HAS
JOINED THE NAM IN BRINGING THE FRONT IN W PIMA AROUND 07Z...
KTUS/KOLS BY 10Z...AND KDUG/NM BORDER BY 13Z. IN ADDITION TO
MOMENTUM TRANSFER ISSUES WITH ANY TSTMS TONIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE 0-1KM HELICITIES OVER 100 M2/S2 JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IF
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ENOUGH...SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND MINI
SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP. WILL OBVIOUSLY MONITOR THIS ADDITIONAL
THREAT. SWODY1 AND DY2 OUTLOOKS HIT EVERYTHING RIGHT ON THE HEAD.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A SLEEPER SHORT WAVE...WHICH ALL MODELS
ARE HANDLING SURPRISINGLY WELL IN THE 12Z RUNS. THIS STORM IS
ORIGINATING MUCH FARTHER N THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS AND WILL REMAIN
CUTOFF FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH BY THEN WILL BE SHUNTED INTO
THE PLAINS. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF ITS GULF OF AK ORIGINS...IT IS MUCH
COLDER AND WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT THE PLENTIFUL RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER US. ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS OUR
ONGOING STORM...THERE WILL BE SOME WIND WITH THIS AS WELL WITH MUCH
MORE EFFICIENT SNOW RATIOS...BOTH FROM AN ACCUMULATING AND BLOWING/
DRIFTING STANDPOINT. TAKING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND NAM
QPFS...WHICH INDICATE /0.25 VALLEYS TO 0.75 MOUNTAINS/...IT IS TIME
TO HOIST A NEW WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 4KFT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP WITH THIS NEXT ONE...SO NOT
ONLY COULD WE GET SOME THUNDERSNOW...BUT WITH THE BEST FORCING
PASSING THROUGH DURING THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD...SNOW LEVELS COULD GET
DRAGGED QUITE LOW. PREVIOUS SHIFT IDEA OF 3500FT LOOKS LIKE A
WINNER...ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE END UP WITH SOME
RAIN/SNOW PELLET MIX A LITTLE LOWER IF WE GET PARTICULARLY
CONVECTIVE. IN THE MOUNTAINS...OUR PRELIMINARY ACCUMULATION FORECAST
IS A BIT BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...BUT COMBINED WITH WIND/BLOWING/
DRIFTING AND WIND CHILLS...A WATCH IS CERTAINLY WARRANTED.

WE ARE GROWING A BIT MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE LATE TUE/WED SYSTEM.
THERE WILL BE ROOM FOR IT TO DIG AND BRIEFLY CLOSE OFF...ALTHOUGH
THE UPSTREAM FLOW IS LOOKING MORE PROGRESSIVE...SO TIMING WILL BE
HARDER TO PIN DOWN AND IT SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY. WE LIKE THE 20-40
POPS WE INHERITED FOR NOW.

THANKS TO OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES/CBRFC/SPC/USGS TUCSON/PIMA COUNTY
FC/EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTERS FOR ALL OF YOUR HELP AND REPORTS
SO FAR!

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG STORM SYSTEM ENTERING THE AREA TODAY INTO FRIDAY
BRINGING HIGH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND CEILINGS DOWN TO 2-4 KFT...
OBSCURING MOUNTAINS. BKN-OVC CEILINGS WITH MVFR/MTN OBSCURATION
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AREA WIDE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES AT TERMINAL SITES THRU 15Z
FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE AROUND 2-6SM IN
RA/SHRA AT TIMES...WITH ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE 07Z AND 12Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WHILE AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA TO EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 40 MPH...WITH WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 58
MPH. THESE WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH THE DAY...SUBSIDING SOME IN THE WESTERN DESERTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THESE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN COUNTIES WELL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO SOME DEGREE TOMORROW...BUT WILL STILL BE HIGHER THAN
WHAT IS TYPICALLY SEEN. HOWEVER...IT MERITS SAYING AGAIN...THIS WILL
BE A FAIRLY WET WEEKEND...WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO START AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...SINCE 1985...THE HIGHEST WIND GUST RECORDED IN THE MONTH
OF JANUARY AT TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 55 MPH ON JANUARY 5
1995.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING ZONES 29/31/32/33

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM FRI ZONES 19/30/35.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM FRI ZONES 29/31/32/33/34.

BLIZZARD WARNING 11 PM TONIGHT TO 11 AM FRI ZONES 19/30/33/34/35
ABOVE 7000 FT.

WINTER STORM WATCH FRI NIGHT TO SAT MORNING ZONES 19/29/30/33/34/35
ABOVE 4000 FT.

&&

PUBLIC...PYTLAK/GLUECK/TURNER
FIRE WX/AVIATION...SMR

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
321 PM MST THU JAN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST TUCSON                  32.24N 110.94W
01/21/2010  M0 MPH           PIMA               AZ   MESONET

            73 MPH MEASURED WIND GUST ON THE U OF A CAMPUS

&&

SMR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
326 PM MST THU JAN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST TUCSON                  32.24N 110.94W
01/21/2010  M73.00 MPH       PIMA               AZ   MESONET

            73 MPH MEASURED WIND GUST ON THE U OF A CAMPUS

&&

SMR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
437 PM MST THU JAN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     DUST STORM       8 NW TUCSON             32.32N 111.03W
01/21/2010                   PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN AVRA VALLEY NEAR PUMP STATION
            ROAD AND THE AIRPORT

&&

CRASMUSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
528 PM MST THU JAN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S AJO                 32.37N 112.87W
01/21/2010  M94 MPH          PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CRASMUSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
530 PM MST THU JAN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 N TUCSON             32.41N 110.94W
01/21/2010                   PIMA               AZ   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PARKING AWNING DAMAGED AT APPARTMENT COMPLEX AT INA AND
            MONA LISA

&&

CRASMUSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
538 PM MST THU JAN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S AJO                 32.37N 112.87W
01/21/2010  E94.00 MPH       PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

0528 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 12 N TUCSON             32.41N 110.94W
01/21/2010                   PIMA               AZ   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PARKING AWNING DAMAGED AT APPARTMENT COMPLEX AT INA AND
            MONA LISA

&&

CRASMUSS