Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
851 PM MST THU JUL 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES ACTING ON DEEP MOISTURE
IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. VERY HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING AND
ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
ACROSS PARTS OF GRAHAM...COCHISE AND EASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD AND MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF
EASTERN PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES YET TONIGHT. OVERALL...EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRI. OTHERWISE...STILL
LOOKING AT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-LCLY TSRA WILL HAVE SCT-BKN BASES AROUND 5-7KFT WITH
CIGS/VSBYS REACHING THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES IN TSRA WITH
MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS PREVALENT THROUGH 10Z FRI. AFT 10Z FRI EXPECT
ISOLD SHOWERS WITH SCT-BKN BASES OF 7-9KFT AGL ALTHOUGH LOWER CLOUDS
AND FOG OBSCURING MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 10Z-15Z. SFC WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS...EXPECT GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS NEAR THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER CIRCULATION MOVING W FROM NM WEAKENS
FURTHER WHILE THE ONE OVER BAJA NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. THIS MAY
ACTUALLY CREATE A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT TO LIFT MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE.  HAVE MAINTAINED OR SLIGHTLY RAISED POPS.
LATEST SREF CONTINUES TO POINT TO MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN SO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY END UP MORE SUITED FOR FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY
THAN TODAY.

MODELS LOOK MORE ACTIVE SUN AND MON THAN DURING PREVIOUS RUNS BUT
FOCUS MAY NEVERTHELESS BE SHIFTING INTO NWD CWFA AND NORTHWARD.  DID
RAISE SOME OF THE OVERNIGHT POPS SAT NGT AND SUN NGT THOUGH DUE TO
CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS AT THIS TIME. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT TUES/WED COULD BE LESS ACTIVITY THAN OF LATE BUT THAT
COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
943 AM MST THU JUL 29 2010

AZZ019-029>035-300700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
943 AM MST THU JUL 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM WET MICROBURTS THE MAIN
THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAIN OF 2 INCHES IN ONE HOUR
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS FROM
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DROZD

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON