Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
134 PM MST THU JUL 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES ACTING ON DEEP MOISTURE
IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. VERY HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING AND
ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS FORMED IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AREA FROM TUCSON WESTWARD. STORMS HAVE PRODUCED SMALL POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN BUT ARE SHOWING ENOUGH FORWARD MOVEMENT NOT TO DWELL OVER
THE SAME AREA FOR TOO LONG.  SUBSIDENT AREA ASSOCIATED WITH NEW
MEXICO UPPER CIRCULATION CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR LACK OF ACTIVITY
IN GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. HOWEVER AS IT WEAKENS...EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME STORMS THERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
THIS SCENARIO IS SUGGESTED BY 15Z SREF AND NAM ALTHOUGH THE 18Z
VERSION HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT. DUE TO THE LATE ONSET OF STORMS
EAST...WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE OVERALL DURATION HAVE OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

AS EVIDENCED BY SPC DROPPING SLIGHT RISK FROM THEIR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE NOT
INCREASED AS MUCH AS WAS ANTICIPATED SO DOWNBURST THREAT LESS THAN
INITIALLY EXPECTED...BUT ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...UPPER CIRCULATION MOVING W FROM NM WEAKENS FURTHER
WHILE THE ONE OVER BAJA NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. THIS MAY ACTUALLY
CREATE A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT TO LIFT MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE.  HAVE MAINTAINED OR SLIGHTLY RAISED POPS.  LATEST SREF
CONTINUES TO POINT TO MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN SO FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY END UP MORE SUITED FOR FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY THAN TODAY.

MODELS LOOK MORE ACTIVE SUN AND MON THAN DURING PREVIOUS RUNS BUT
FOCUS MAY NEVERTHELESS BE SHIFTING INTO NWD CWFA AND NORTHWARD.  DID
RAISE SOME OF THE OVERNIGHT POPS SAT NGT AND SUN NGT THOUGH DUE TO
CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS AT THIS TIME. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT TUES/WED COULD BE LESS ACTIVITY THAN OF LATE BUT THAT
COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-LCLY TSRA WILL HAVE SCT-BKN BASES AROUND 5-7KFT WITH
CIGS/VSBYS REACHING THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES IN TSRA WITH
MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS PREVALENT THROUGH 03Z. AFT 03Z EXPECT ISOLD
SHOWERS WITH SCT-BKN BASES OF 7-9KFT AGL ALTHOUGH LOWER CLOUDS AND
FOG OBSCURING MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 05Z-13Z. SFC WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS...EXPECT GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS NEAR THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

DROZD/KAHLER

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
943 AM MST THU JUL 29 2010

AZZ019-029>035-300700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
943 AM MST THU JUL 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM WET MICROBURTS THE MAIN
THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAIN OF 2 INCHES IN ONE HOUR
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS FROM
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DROZD

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

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