Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2010

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 19, 2010Cochise County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 19, 2010, 7:14 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 46 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 19, 2010, 7:14 PM MST (02:14 UTC)
Expired: Jul 19, 2010, 8:00 PM MST
In force: 46 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Cochise County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 2.2 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 8 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -115 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 3344 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 6 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -49 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -8 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 19, 2:00 PM MST, 5 hours 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 2:00 PM MST, 5 hours 14 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST MON JUL 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. JUST
TRYING TO PICK OUT THE DETAILS FOR UP AND DOWN DAYS AT THIS POINT.
FOR TODAY IT LOOKS LIKE EARLIER THOUGHTS ARE WORKING OUT WITH THE
12Z NAM WOBBLING DOWN A REMNANT OF THE RECONSOLIDATING HIGH CENTER
TEMPORARILY DOWN OVER US THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS TENDED TO DELAY
DEVELOPMENT AND TAMP THINGS DOWN A TAD. MOUNTAIN DEVELOPMENT IS
FINALLY UNDERWAY IN EARNEST...BUT WE STILL MAY END UP STRUGGLING TO
DEVELOP WIDESPREAD VALLEY STORMS AS THEY TRY TO MOVE OFF.

OTHERWISE...HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH HEIGHTS FALLING THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK. GAINING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WITH THINGS
REMAINING PLENTY WET. SOME MID LEVEL COOLING AS THIS HAPPENS WILL
MAKE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE EVEN LESS STABLE WITH LESS CONDITIONS
ON AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK LOOKS EVEN MORE SOLID FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER THAT...ONE DOESN'T WANT TO SEE THE HIGH CENTER WANDER TOO FAR
EAST...THAT TENDS TO REFOCUS THE H7 THETA-E RIDGE THROUGH NEW MEXICO
AND PUT US MORE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE ACTION. WE SHALL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BASES AROUND 3-6K FT AGL WITH REDUCED VSBYS VICINITY STRONGER TSTMS.
STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS FROM SOME STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AMPLE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 19, 10:30 AM MST, 8 hours 44 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1030 AM MST MON JUL 19 2010

AZZ019-029>035-201400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1030 AM MST MON JUL 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ALTHOUGH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY...THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTER TEMPORARILY TRACKS OVER
THE AREA BEFORE TAKING UP RESIDENCE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
TOMORROW. THIS WILL MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ALOFT
TODAY. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COVERAGE WILL BE DOWN FROM
THAT EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

HOWEVER...STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL APPROACH ONE INCH...WHICH CAN PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK-WEEK...AS THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 19, 5:51 PM MST, 1 hour 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
551 PM MST MON JUL 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 SSE DRAGOON           31.93N 109.96W
07/19/2010                   COCHISE            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED WIND DAMAGE TO AWNINGS. ALSO 1/2
            INCH HAIL.

&&

BTURNER

Local storm report, Jul 19, 6:00 PM MST, 1 hour 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
600 PM MST MON JUL 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     TSTM WND GST     DOUGLAS                 31.34N 109.54W
07/19/2010  M68 MPH          COCHISE            AZ   ASOS

            ASOS AT THE BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT MEASURED A WIND GUST
            OF 68 MPH.

&&

BTURNER

Local storm report, Jul 19, 6:28 PM MST, 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
628 PM MST MON JUL 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 W DOUGLAS             31.34N 109.66W
07/19/2010                   COCHISE            AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED ROOF BLOWN OFF RESIDENCE ON
            DOUBLE ADOBE ROAD.

&&

BTURNER

Local storm report, Jul 19, 6:48 PM MST, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
648 PM MST MON JUL 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SE DRAGOON            32.00N 110.00W
07/19/2010  M2.60 INCH       COCHISE            AZ   MESONET

            AUTOMATED GAUGE REPORTED 2.60 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN 50
            MINUTES.

&&

CKAHLER

Local storm report, Jul 19, 7:12 PM MST, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
712 PM MST MON JUL 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HEAVY RAIN       7 WNW DOUGLAS           31.37N 109.66W
07/19/2010  M0.00 INCH       COCHISE            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 0.90 INCH RAIN IN 45 MINUTES
            ALONG WITH STREET FLOODING IN DOUGLAS.

&&

BTURNER

Local storm report, Jul 19, 7:12 PM MST, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
712 PM MST MON JUL 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HEAVY RAIN       7 WNW DOUGLAS           31.37N 109.66W
07/19/2010  M0.90 INCH       COCHISE            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 0.90 INCH RAIN IN 45 MINUTES
            ALONG WITH STREET FLOODING IN DOUGLAS.

&&

BTURNER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 19, 5:03 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	42 min
Jul 19, 5:14 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Greenlee	61 min
Jul 19, 5:14 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise	91 min
Jul 19, 5:43 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise	92 min
Jul 19, 5:45 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	44 min
Jul 19, 5:59 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	61 min
Jul 19, 6:25 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	50 min
Jul 19, 6:44 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise	91 min
Jul 19, 8:00 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Cochise	105 min
Jul 19, 8:14 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Cochise	91 min
Jul 19, 11:28 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	27 min
Jul 19, 11:51 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	84 min
Jul 20, 3:43 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Cochise	47 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2010 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.