Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST MON JUL 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. JUST
TRYING TO PICK OUT THE DETAILS FOR UP AND DOWN DAYS AT THIS POINT.
FOR TODAY IT LOOKS LIKE EARLIER THOUGHTS ARE WORKING OUT WITH THE
12Z NAM WOBBLING DOWN A REMNANT OF THE RECONSOLIDATING HIGH CENTER
TEMPORARILY DOWN OVER US THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS TENDED TO DELAY
DEVELOPMENT AND TAMP THINGS DOWN A TAD. MOUNTAIN DEVELOPMENT IS
FINALLY UNDERWAY IN EARNEST...BUT WE STILL MAY END UP STRUGGLING TO
DEVELOP WIDESPREAD VALLEY STORMS AS THEY TRY TO MOVE OFF.

OTHERWISE...HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH HEIGHTS FALLING THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK. GAINING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WITH THINGS
REMAINING PLENTY WET. SOME MID LEVEL COOLING AS THIS HAPPENS WILL
MAKE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE EVEN LESS STABLE WITH LESS CONDITIONS
ON AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK LOOKS EVEN MORE SOLID FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER THAT...ONE DOESN'T WANT TO SEE THE HIGH CENTER WANDER TOO FAR
EAST...THAT TENDS TO REFOCUS THE H7 THETA-E RIDGE THROUGH NEW MEXICO
AND PUT US MORE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE ACTION. WE SHALL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BASES AROUND 3-6K FT AGL WITH REDUCED VSBYS VICINITY STRONGER TSTMS.
STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS FROM SOME STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AMPLE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1030 AM MST MON JUL 19 2010

AZZ019-029>035-201400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1030 AM MST MON JUL 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ALTHOUGH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY...THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTER TEMPORARILY TRACKS OVER
THE AREA BEFORE TAKING UP RESIDENCE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
TOMORROW. THIS WILL MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ALOFT
TODAY. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COVERAGE WILL BE DOWN FROM
THAT EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

HOWEVER...STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL APPROACH ONE INCH...WHICH CAN PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK-WEEK...AS THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
343 PM MST MON JUL 19 2010

AZZ019-030-192330-
NORTHERN GREENLEE AZ-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY AZ-
343 PM MST MON JUL 19 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GREENLEE COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM MST...

AT 336 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SUNFLOWER MESA...14 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MORENCI...OR 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAFFORD...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE RURAL EAST CENTRAL GREENLEE
COUNTY...BUT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD FUNNEL DOWN CANYONS TO
HIGHWAY 191 NEAR AND NORTH OF MORENCI.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3312 10906 3302 10934 3321 10941 3336 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 046DEG 8KT 3320 10917

KD

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