Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
616 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE...REACHING
TULSA AREA BY AROUND 09Z. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO KFSM MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS MOST PLACES SOUTH OF FRONT AFTER 10Z.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF FRONT WILL GRADUALLY REACH MLC
ABOUT 16Z...FINALLY FSM BY 21Z. DECREASING TREND IN COVERAGE INT
HE AFTERNOON PRECLUDES A PREVAILING TS AT FSM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010/

DISCUSSION...
COOL FRONT..FROM AROUND KHUT TO KCDS COMING TO LIFE
WITH SEVERE STORMS.  PRECIP ALSO BREAKING PUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. GFS RATHER SLOW WITH FRONTAL MOVEMENT
WHILE WRF SPEEDY.   UKMET/ECMWF CONSIDERATION WOULD
PARK THE PARK IN THE VICINITY OF  KCFV-KSNL LINE AT
12Z THURSDAY. HEFTY POPS FROM I-44 AND PLACES NORTH-
WEST OVERNIGHT. RISK OF SEVERE HIGHEST OSAGE/PAWNEE.
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SLIDE  SOUTHEAST THURSDAY WITH
A PROJECTED POSITION NEAR KHRO - KDUA LINE LATE DAY.
THIS KEEPS PLACES FROM I-44 NORTHWEST COOL / PLACES
IN SOUTHEAST OK..AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WARM BEFORE
THE FRONT PASSES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
LIFT FOR EVERY IMPULSE WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.4-1.8 SUGGEST A VERY SOGGY WEEKEND.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...14

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