Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1147 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER 09Z WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT...WHILE LOW STRATOCU WILL INCREASE ELSEWHERE TO BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS. FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND
REACH MLC AROUND 15Z...FINALLY TO FSM BY 20Z. SOME DECREASE IN
STORMS COVERAGE PROBABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL JET AND SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS LIKELY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z NORMAN SOUNDING HAS SOMEWHAT OF AN INVERTED
V LOOK.  THE LIGHT SHOWERS FROM OSAGE COUNTY SOUTH INTO
WESTERN CREEK COUNTY HAVE PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS.
THE PEAK WIND AT PAWNEE REACHED NEAR 50 MPH.  WINDS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE WEAK
CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  WE HAVE ISSUED
A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR THESE WINDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
947 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
947 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR IS IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL OF THE
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.  HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...
BUT A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  THE
FRONT WILL REACH A LINE FROM NEAR JOPLIN TO OKMULGEE BY SUNRISE.
THE FRONT WILL NOT MARK THE END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED TO OVERRUN THE FRONT...MAINTAINING THE LIFT
NECESSARY TO SUPPORT STORMS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 RECEIVING
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD CAUSE A LOCAL
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL BE NECESSARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY AS IT CROSSES EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN A SLOW
DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.  WITH THE FRONT IN THE
AREA THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  AT THIS TIME
THERE ARE NO MAJOR UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEMS EXPECTED IN THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND...SO LARGE SCALE SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LIMITED LOCAL SEVERE STORM RISK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
836 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

OKZ064>066-130200-
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
836 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN OKMULGEE AND SOUTHEASTERN CREEK

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OKFUSKEE

AT 837 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WELTY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...WELTY...SLICK AND KELLYVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3602 9623 3592 9604 3558 9633 3566 9649
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 211DEG 40KT 3570 9633

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
929 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

OKZ060-061-130300-
ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-
929 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN ROGERS AND NORTHERN TULSA

AT 930 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER TULSA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...TULSA...OWASSO AND COLLINSVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3636 9557 3607 9589 3617 9604 3618 9601
      3622 9601 3648 9579
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 217DEG 39KT 3616 9592

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
933 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             10 SSE BRISTOW          35.70N 96.32W
05/12/2010  E1.00 INCH       CREEK              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ESTIMATED QUARTER SIZE HAIL 10 MILES SOUTH OF BRISTOW AND
            2 MILES EAST OF HIGHWAY 48

0923 PM     HAIL             3 SW TULSA              36.10N 95.96W
05/12/2010  E0.88 INCH       TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ESTIMATED NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT INTERSTATE 44 AND RIVERSIDE

&&

DMJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     HAIL             1 WSW TULSA             36.13N 95.94W
05/12/2010  E0.50 INCH       TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            31ST AND HARVARD

0933 PM     HAIL             2 N TULSA               36.16N 95.92W
05/12/2010  E0.50 INCH       TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RELAYED THROUGH MEDIA OF DIME HAIL AT TULSA INTERNATIONAL
            AIRPORT

&&

DMJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1124 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

OKZ064>066-070-071-073-130515-
CREEK OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-PITTSBURG
OK-
1124 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OKMULGEE AND SOUTHERN CREEK

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE AND OKFUSKEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MCINTOSH AND NORTHERN PITTSBURG

AT 1115 PM CDT...A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WERE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN TULSA AND
MCALESTER.  SOME OF THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 MPH AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST.

AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE WINDS INCLUDE ALL OR PORTIONS
OF OKMULGEE...CREEK...MUSKOGEE...OKFUSKEE...MCINTOSH...AND PITTSBURG
COUNTIES.

AGAIN...LOCAL WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS THROUGH 1215 AM.

LAT...LON 3588 9660 3584 9570 3583 9565 3578 9561
      3581 9533 3503 9549 3498 9607 3505 9609
      3516 9599 3529 9599 3529 9643 3546 9645
      3542 9649 3544 9656 3538 9655 3541 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0415Z 203DEG 45KT 3506 9617