Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
930 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR IS KEEPING STORMS GOING IN
NW AR DESPITE NEARLY NON-EXISTANT SFC BASED
INSTABILITY. CONDITIONS REMAIN MORE FAVORABLE
IN SE OK...WHERE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

UPDATED POPS/WX TO BETTER FIT CURRENT TRENDS
AND REMOVED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MUCH OF
NERN AND ECNTRL OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  83  69  85 /  10  20  40  30
FSM   64  85  69  84 /  60  20  30  20
MLC   67  85  71  84 /  50  20  20  10
BVO   53  82  67  84 /  10  20  60  30
FYV   58  80  67  82 /  60  20  40  20
BYV   59  83  65  83 /  40  20  50  20
MKO   63  84  68  83 /  50  20  30  20
MIO   62  83  66  84 /  20  20  70  30
F10   65  85  70  82 /  10  20  30  20
HHW   68  85  70  85 /  90  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
800 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
800 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

...VIOLENT TORNADOES LIKELY THIS EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AND
        SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A OKFUSKEE TO
        FAYETTEVILLE LINE.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
        RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
TORNADOES...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE
40 CORRIDOR INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING. ADDITIONAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...AND
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

INSTABILITY LESSENS FARTHER EAST INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SO THERE IS
SOME QUESTION CONCERNING THE SEVERITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK HAS BEEN ACTIVATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS REPEATED ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  FORECAST
CONDITIONS DO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A TRANSITION TO A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LIKELY BY LATE WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EXPECT ONE OR MORE DAYS WITH SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
749 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND GST     TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
05/10/2010  E55.00 MPH       TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

0730 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S WYNONA              36.52N 96.33W
05/10/2010  E0.00 MPH        OSAGE              OK   MESONET

            OCCURRED ABOUT 10 MILES WEST OF ANY OBSERVED
            THUNDERSTORM.

0735 PM     HAIL             COUNCIL HILL            35.56N 95.65W
05/10/2010  E2.75 INCH       MCINTOSH           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

0740 PM     TORNADO          2 S RENTIESVILLE        35.49N 95.49W
05/10/2010                   MCINTOSH           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO REPORTED 2 SOUTH OF RENTIESVILLE. RAIN WRAPPED.

0743 PM     TORNADO          7 NE OKEMAH             35.50N 96.22W
05/10/2010                   OKFUSKEE           OK   PUBLIC

            TORNADO SIGHTED AND TREES DOWN. RELAYED FROM OUN.

&&

SAA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
750 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

OKZ055>057-110145-
CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
750 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CRAIG...NOWATA AND WASHINGTON

AT 751 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH COFFEYVILLE TO 15 MILES WEST OF NOWATA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS INCLUDE...NOWATA...DELAWARE...LENAPAH...WELCH AND SOUTH
COFFEYVILLE.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3698 9504 3696 9503 3671 9518 3660 9578
      3660 9582 3659 9582 3656 9597 3700 9563
      3700 9504
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 243DEG 41KT 3701 9555 3665 9583

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
836 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             4 N BOX                 35.64N 94.98W
05/10/2010  E2.75 INCH       SEQUOYAH           OK   PUBLIC

            SNAKE CREEK WILDERNESS LODGE

&&

SAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
928 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     HAIL             4 N NATURAL DAM         35.71N 94.39W
05/10/2010  E0.88 INCH       CRAWFORD           AR   PUBLIC

0913 PM     HAIL             3 S WINSLOW             35.76N 94.13W
05/10/2010  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SAA

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