Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
654 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE DANGEROUS TORNADIC SUPERCELL IS MOVING THROUGH
OKFUSKEE COUNTY.  ALL SHEAR PARAMETERS REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR A TORNADO AHEAD OF THE CELL.

THE CELL IS INGESTING SURFACE-BASED CAPE OF AROUND
2000 J/KG AT THIS TIME.  THE CAPE DROPS OFF TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE CELL IN EASTERN
MCINTOSH COUNTY.  WHILE THE CAPE WILL BE DECREASING
...THE EXCELLENT SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUE TORNADO
THREAT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHERN OKMULGEE AND
MCINTOSH COUNTIES.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING NOW FROM OSAGE COUNTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST OF NORMAN.  THESE CELLS ARE STARTING IN
A COMPLEX FASHION...BUT THE EXTREME SHEAR PROFILES
WILL RESULT IN MESOCYCLONES DEVELOPING IN THE CELLS.
ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD RAPIDLY ORGANIZE INTO DANGEROUS
SUPERCELL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
505 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
505 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

...VIOLENT TORNADOES POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40
        ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST OF A MCALESTER TO
        FORT SMITH LINE.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
        RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NORTH CENTRAL TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...IN THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDED BY A
DRYLINE TO THE WEST AND WARM FRONT TO THE EAST. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING. RAPID
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH...WITH STORMS MAINTAINING SEVERE STRENGTH WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. OBSERVED WIND PROFILES AND STORM HISTORY STRONGLY
SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS WILL BE TORNADIC...PRIMARILY
IMPACTING NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 PM.

ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

ALONG WITH THE RISK OF TORNADOES...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINES MAY OCCUR.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK HAS BEEN ACTIVATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS REPEATED ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  FORECAST
CONDITIONS DO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A TRANSITION TO A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LIKELY BY LATE WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EXPECT ONE OR MORE DAYS WITH SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
702 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E OKEMAH              35.43N 96.25W
05/10/2010  M59 MPH          OKFUSKEE           OK   MESONET

            OKEMAH MESONET...ENDING AT 655 PM

&&

SAA

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
714 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     TORNADO          2 SE HENRYETTA          35.42N 95.96W
05/10/2010                   OKMULGEE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            TORNADO REPORTED ON GROUND JUST NORTH OF TURNPIKE
            SOUTHEAST OF HENRYETTA

&&

SAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
722 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             2 S HENRYETTA           35.41N 95.98W
05/10/2010  E1.75 INCH       OKMULGEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CKH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
725 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

OKZ054>057-110100-
CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-OSAGE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
725 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN CRAIG...NOWATA...WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OSAGE

AT 725 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
OCHELATA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...NOWATA...DELAWARE...LENAPAH...
WANN...BARTLESVILLE...OCHELATA...DEWEY...COPAN AND SOUTH COFFEYVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3672 9538 3655 9600 3682 9616 3700 9582
      3700 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 248DEG 39KT 3666 9594

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
729 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     TORNADO          PIERCE                  35.43N 95.72W
05/10/2010                   MCINTOSH           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TORNADO REPORTED BY NEWS MEDIA. LOCATIONS APPROXIMATE.

&&

SAA