Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
714 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO FORECAST WILL CLEAN UP WORDING FROM PRE-FIRST PERIOD AND
TO ADJUST POPS UP ALONG AND NEAR THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE AREA
TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. HOWEVER...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES BRINGING BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES
CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010/

.UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND IF CURRENT CONVECTION
CONTINUES...LOOKING LIKE IT WILL ENTER INTO NORTHERN OSAGE AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WILL RAISE
POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAIN/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE ONGOING HEAT THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR TULSA
COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY GIVEN WARM OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED IN THE METRO AREA. THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY. SLOW WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH TEMPS WARM A
DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO SLOWLY DECREASE...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS
WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
AREAS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING LATER AS
LOW TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CREEP UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER
A LARGER AREA.

REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED STAYED CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE AS UPPER
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER REGION INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY MID TO
LATE WEEK. AGAIN LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO
COMPARED TO THE MEX IN A FEW AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  97  77  98 /  30   0  10  10
FSM   74  97  76  98 /  30  10  10  10
MLC   74  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   73  96  74  97 /  60   0  10  10
FYV   70  92  71  93 /  40  10  10  10
BYV   72  92  73  93 /  40  10  10  10
MKO   73  95  74  96 /  20   0  10  10
MIO   73  93  74  93 /  60   0  10  10
F10   74  95  74  97 /  20   0  10  10
HHW   75  97  75  98 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
502 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
502 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEEKEND...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN WHICH WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS COLLAPSE.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAY TIME HEATING THIS EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND UPCOMING WEEK FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SEE LATEST /OKCNWPTSA/ FOR CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORIES AND WARNING.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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