Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
714 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO FORECAST WILL CLEAN UP WORDING FROM PRE-FIRST PERIOD AND
TO ADJUST POPS UP ALONG AND NEAR THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE AREA
TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. HOWEVER...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES BRINGING BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES
CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010/

.UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND IF CURRENT CONVECTION
CONTINUES...LOOKING LIKE IT WILL ENTER INTO NORTHERN OSAGE AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WILL RAISE
POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAIN/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE ONGOING HEAT THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR TULSA
COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY GIVEN WARM OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED IN THE METRO AREA. THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY. SLOW WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH TEMPS WARM A
DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO SLOWLY DECREASE...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS
WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
AREAS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING LATER AS
LOW TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CREEP UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER
A LARGER AREA.

REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED STAYED CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE AS UPPER
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER REGION INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY MID TO
LATE WEEK. AGAIN LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO
COMPARED TO THE MEX IN A FEW AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  97  77  98 /  30   0  10  10
FSM   74  97  76  98 /  30  10  10  10
MLC   74  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   73  96  74  97 /  60   0  10  10
FYV   70  92  71  93 /  40  10  10  10
BYV   72  92  73  93 /  40  10  10  10
MKO   73  95  74  96 /  20   0  10  10
MIO   73  93  74  93 /  60   0  10  10
F10   74  95  74  97 /  20   0  10  10
HHW   75  97  75  98 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
502 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
502 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEEKEND...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN WHICH WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS COLLAPSE.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAY TIME HEATING THIS EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND UPCOMING WEEK FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SEE LATEST /OKCNWPTSA/ FOR CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORIES AND WARNING.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
538 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

OKZ072-162315-
SEQUOYAH OK-
538 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL SEQUOYAH

AT 538 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF
MARBLE CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SALLISAW...VIAN...BRUSHY AND MARBLE
CITY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3550 9459 3538 9482 3550 9506 3565 9491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 304DEG 3KT 3556 9490

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
605 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

OKZ054-170000-
OSAGE OK-
605 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN OSAGE

AT 605 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 19 MILES NORTH OF
BIGHEART...MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PAWHUSKA...OKESA...PEARSONIA...
BIGHEART AND HULAH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3700 9609 3699 9602 3666 9600 3664 9601
      3662 9655 3700 9654
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 358DEG 26KT 3710 9631

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
614 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

OKZ058-170000-
OTTAWA OK-
614 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OTTAWA

AT 614 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF
OTTAWA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MIAMI...COMMERCE...WYANDOTTE...
QUAPAW AND PICHER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3699 9461 3668 9461 3667 9476 3700 9503
      3700 9495 3700 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 325DEG 5KT 3690 9480

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