Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
259 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION... WITH
FAIRLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
PLAGUE MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED THROUGHOUT THIS AREA
DUE TO RAINFALL CONTINUING TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREAS.

THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE SEEN A PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER GENERALLY THE SAME AREA... AND
THEN WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HIGH POPS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... WITH THE HIGHEST BEING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME TRAINING OF CELLS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEAK.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN EVOLVING LATER THIS WEEK. THE
NEWS-MAKING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD... THEN
WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN A MORE SEASONAL UPPER PATTERN
TO OUR REGION... LESSENING OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TURNING UP
THE HEAT TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  88  74  85 /  30  80  60  70
FSM   75  89  73  88 /  40  90  50  70
MLC   74  85  72  86 /  50  70  50  70
BVO   71  88  72  85 /  30  80  60  70
FYV   72  84  71  85 /  30  90  60  80
BYV   71  85  70  85 /  30  80  50  80
MKO   73  88  71  86 /  30  90  60  70
MIO   72  89  72  87 /  30  80  60  70
F10   73  86  71  86 /  40  80  50  70
HHW   76  89  73  89 /  50  70  40  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
109 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
109 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
 	AREA...WEST OF A GROVE TO MCALESTER LINE.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...WEST OF A GROVE TO MCALESTER LINE.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN PERSISTENT ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN AREA GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A MOIST
AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY STORMS AND THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP. THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 75. A FEW STRONGER CELLS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WITH US FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS. MEANWHILE A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER LOUISIANA WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG WITH AN INCREASING HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1118 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E SOUTH COFFEYVILLE   36.99N 95.58W
07/06/2010                   NOWATA             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN AND BARN COLLAPSED AT COUNTY ROAD 1 AND
            416.

&&

PBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
246 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BARTLESVILLE            36.75N 95.98W
07/06/2010                   WASHINGTON         OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A COUPLE HOMES HAVE RECEIVED FLOODING AND TWO DAY CARE
            CENTERS HAVE BEEN EVACUATED.

&&

DMJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
259 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

OKZ064-062045-
CREEK OK-
259 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CREEK

AT 259 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST
OF DRUMRIGHT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...DRUMRIGHT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3609 9630 3585 9651 3595 9663 3612 9652
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 296DEG 13KT 3601 9653

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

OKZ057-058-062100-
CRAIG OK-OTTAWA OK-
311 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN CRAIG AND NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA

AT 311 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF
HOLLOW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BLUEJACKET AND WELCH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3694 9489 3674 9514 3694 9535 3700 9527
      3700 9496
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 229DEG 13KT 3689 9518

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
347 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

OKZ049-073-062130-
PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
347 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN PITTSBURG AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA

AT 346 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALDERSON TO 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PITTSBURG...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...MCALESTER...KIOWA...BLANCO...
ASHLAND...SAVANNA...HAYWOOD...ALDERSON AND KREBS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3450 9579 3452 9578 3452 9573 3458 9573
      3460 9589 3468 9589 3468 9608 3502 9609
      3492 9566 3459 9567 3458 9573 3452 9573
      3452 9568 3448 9568
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 107DEG 5KT 3487 9572 3454 9575