River Flood Warning 17, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1214 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VERY MOIST..TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO
PERSIST WITHIN THIS AIRMASS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT MOST
CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF TULSA AND
MCALESTER. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY AROUND 12Z OVER
MUCH OF SE OKLAHOMA AND NW ARKANSAS...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE
INCREASE IN SHOWERS MID MORNING AS DISTURBANCE OVER LOUISIANA
LIFTS NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OSAGE...WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN NOWATA
COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OVER 3 INCHES SOME
PLACES. ALSO REPORT OF SOME WIND DAMAGE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
OK/KS BORDER EAST OF COFFEYVILLE. OTHER PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN
ACROSS MADISON AND CARROLL COUNTIES BUT WITH CONSIDERABLY LESS
RAINFALL. THESE AREAS SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY STILL POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA NOW RESIDING WITHIN MAIN PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS FROM MEXICO TO GREAT LAKES. MAIN CHANCES TO
FORECAST WERE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TO LOWER HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN MOST PERSISTENT
SO FAR. UPDATE COMING SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH QUITE A BIT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS A RESULT. SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON...
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS. MVFR VISIBILITES IN
LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT KFYV AND KXNA...AND SOME LOW
CLOUDINESS MAY ALSO WORK INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TOWARDS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROF THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE ALSO PROVIDING THE LIFT NECESSARY TO PRODUCE
THE SHOWERS. WOULD EXPECT THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE TROPICAL PLUME REMAINS OVERHEAD AND THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BECOMES MORE OF A SHEAR AXIS THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE UPPER MID-WEST TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED. THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE TROPICS AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SURGES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SEEMINGLY EVER PRESENT TROPICAL PLUME WHICH STRETCHES
FROM MEXICO TO THE UPPER MID-WEST. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WILL GO WITH LOWER POPS OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL RETURN BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
109 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
109 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
 	AREA...WEST OF A GROVE TO MCALESTER LINE.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...WEST OF A GROVE TO MCALESTER LINE.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN PERSISTENT ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN AREA GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A MOIST
AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY STORMS AND THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP. THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 75. A FEW STRONGER CELLS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WITH US FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS. MEANWHILE A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER LOUISIANA WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG WITH AN INCREASING HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1118 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E SOUTH COFFEYVILLE   36.99N 95.58W
07/06/2010                   NOWATA             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN AND BARN COLLAPSED AT COUNTY ROAD 1 AND
            416.

&&

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