Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1253 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME
WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT BUILDS EAST AND
SOUTH. WILL CARRY TEMPO +TSRA FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KMLC WHERE IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER THEY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THE COMPLEX. ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2010/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
SEEM DESTINED TO CONTINUE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO A RATHER
UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT RESIDES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SOME UPTICK IN INTENSITY IS ALSO LIKELY AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON. ALREADY SEEING DIURNAL CONVECTION FIRE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN ACTIVITY AND THIS TREND WILL ALSO LIKELY CONTINUE.

HAVE RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. ONLY LOWERED AFTERNOON
MAXIMUMS A DEGREE OR TWO THOUGH AS CURRENT READINGS ARE ALREADY
NOT FAR FROM THE FORECAST MAXIMUMS.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
102 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
102 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS ENTERING NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY ENCOUNTER A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF AN OKEMAH TO
POTEAU LINE...WITH WINDS TO 70 MILES AN HOUR AND HAIL UP TO HALF
DOLLAR SIZE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING ENDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 SOUTHEAST OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
PRIMARILY WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLY NEARING 100 DEGREES IN SOME PLACES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
115 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

OKZ054-059-064-161900-
CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
115 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN CREEK AND PAWNEE

AT 115 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOMINY TO TERLTON TO 6 MILES WEST
OF OILTON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...OSAGE...HOMINY...JENNINGS...
TERLTON...HALLETT...CLEVELAND...WESTPORT...DRUMRIGHT...OILTON AND
MANNFORD.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3619 9662 3653 9658 3653 9619 3619 9627
      3595 9640 3597 9663 3617 9664
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 269DEG 9KT 3644 9647 3619 9650
          3605 9669

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
201 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

OKZ055-060-061-067-161945-
ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-WASHINGTON OK-
201 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN WAGONER...WESTERN ROGERS...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND TULSA

AT 202 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF SKIATOOK TO TULSA TO 12 MILES
WEST OF GLENPOOL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...
CATOOSA...VERDIGRIS...OOLOGAH...TALALA...BIXBY...JENKS...OWASSO...
GLENPOOL...SPERRY...SKIATOOK...COLLINSVILLE...BROKEN ARROW...VERA...
RAMONA...STONEBLUFF...COWETA AND ONETA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3659 9556 3587 9563 3587 9601 3597 9603
      3627 9600 3654 9600
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 247DEG 16KT 3648 9608 3623 9599
          3591 9622

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