Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1239 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
EAST WITH THE POTENTIAL TO AFFECT MLC/FYV/XNA AREAS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VIS/CEILINGS IN HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LIKELY
IMPACTING MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2010/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES NORTHWEST OF
ONGOING ACTIVITY. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS COULD BE BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS
ACTIVITY PUSHES INTO INSTABILITY AXIS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS MAIN UPPER
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES/QPF TUESDAY MORNING AND ALSO EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY GIVEN CURRENT THINKING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH
   THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...NORTH OF I-40 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT HOWEVER A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 100
DEGREES WILL ALSO BE LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF THE THUNDERSTORM LINE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY GROW INTO A LARGE COMPLEX THAT WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...
WITH CURRENT DATA SUGGESTING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LIMITED THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THIS COMPLEX EARLY TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL AREAS MAY BE ADDED TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT
/OKCFFATSA/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT BECOME LESS
DEFINED...WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ISOLATED AND
FOCUSED MORE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH THE
AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND AND BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THOUGH BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
FLASH FLOODING COULD BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RIVER
FLOODING ALSO A CONCERN INTO MID WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
957 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLASH FLOOD      8 NW HOMINY             36.50N 96.50W
06/14/2010                   OSAGE              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER MANY RURAL ROADS AND LOW WATER CROSSING AREAS
            NORTHWEST OF HOMINY. REPORTED BY OIL FIELD WORKER TRYING
            TO REACH PUMP SITES BETWEEN HOMINY AND FAIRFAX AREAS.
            FLOODING OBSERVED AS EARLY AS 830 AM...BUT CONTINUING AT
            930 AM.

&&

SAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1053 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BARNSDALL               36.56N 96.16W
06/14/2010                   OSAGE              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS UNDER WATER AT LOW WATER CROSSINGS NEAR AND
            AROUND BARNSDALL. SAND CREEK AND BIRD CREEK RISING
            QUICKLY.

&&

SAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
06/14/2010                   TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER OVER THE STREETS AT 61ST AND LEWIS AND ALSO NEAR
            41ST AND SHERIDAN.

&&

SAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
135 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 SE TULSA              36.06N 95.83W
06/14/2010                   TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            81ST STREET CLOSED BETWEEN MEMORIAL AND MINGO...DUE TO
            WATER OVER THE ROAD.

&&

SAA