River Flood Warning 10, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES NORTHWEST OF
ONGOING ACTIVITY. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS COULD BE BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS
ACTIVITY PUSHES INTO INSTABILITY AXIS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS MAIN UPPER
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES/QPF TUESDAY MORNING AND ALSO EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY GIVEN CURRENT THINKING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
507 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
506 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTH OF I-40 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING FOR FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...LATE THIS EVENING ELSEWHERE.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...LATE THIS EVENING ELSEWHERE.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS
MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS BEFORE THEY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER
THIS MORNING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A RESULT OF THIS ACTIVITY...
AND THIS MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON IN AN UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH LOCAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 100 DEGREES
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY GROW INTO A LARGE COMPLEX THAT WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...
WITH CURRENT DATA SUGGESTING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LIMITED
THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THIS COMPLEX EARLY TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT BECOME LESS
DEFINED...WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ISOLATED AND
FOCUSED MORE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH THE
AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND AND BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THOUGH BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
FLASH FLOODING COULD BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RIVER
FLOODING ALSO A POTENTIAL CONCERN.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
957 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLASH FLOOD      8 NW HOMINY             36.50N 96.50W
06/14/2010                   OSAGE              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER MANY RURAL ROADS AND LOW WATER CROSSING AREAS
            NORTHWEST OF HOMINY. REPORTED BY OIL FIELD WORKER TRYING
            TO REACH PUMP SITES BETWEEN HOMINY AND FAIRFAX AREAS.
            FLOODING OBSERVED AS EARLY AS 830 AM...BUT CONTINUING AT
            930 AM.

&&

SAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1053 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BARNSDALL               36.56N 96.16W
06/14/2010                   OSAGE              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS UNDER WATER AT LOW WATER CROSSINGS NEAR AND
            AROUND BARNSDALL. SAND CREEK AND BIRD CREEK RISING
            QUICKLY.

&&

SAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
06/14/2010                   TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER OVER THE STREETS AT 61ST AND LEWIS AND ALSO NEAR
            41ST AND SHERIDAN.

&&

SAA