River Flood Warning 23, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
559 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR FSM WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING...
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE
OKLAHOMA AND WC ARKANSAS. HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO FOG
ACROSS NW ARKANSAS WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP AFTER
09Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY FLOODING RAINS ARE CURRENTLY INUNDATING MUCH OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. WILL MAKE FINAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST PERIOD POPS JUST BEFORE ISSUANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING
TODAY... EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF THE WATER FAUCET THAT HAS BROUGHT
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SUMMER RAINFALL TO THE REGION THUS FAR. AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS... PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL...
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER... MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA... THANKS TO SATURATED SOILS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE TO NEAR AND
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEK... HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB
WELL OVER 100 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HEAT STRESS WILL BECOME THE
MAJOR WEATHER THREAT SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CONVERT THE REMAINDER
OF THE GOING EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...14

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