River Flood Warning 22, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
559 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR FSM WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING...
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE
OKLAHOMA AND WC ARKANSAS. HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO FOG
ACROSS NW ARKANSAS WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP AFTER
09Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY FLOODING RAINS ARE CURRENTLY INUNDATING MUCH OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. WILL MAKE FINAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST PERIOD POPS JUST BEFORE ISSUANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING
TODAY... EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF THE WATER FAUCET THAT HAS BROUGHT
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SUMMER RAINFALL TO THE REGION THUS FAR. AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS... PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL...
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER... MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA... THANKS TO SATURATED SOILS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE TO NEAR AND
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEK... HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB
WELL OVER 100 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HEAT STRESS WILL BECOME THE
MAJOR WEATHER THREAT SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CONVERT THE REMAINDER
OF THE GOING EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
505 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
505 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
 	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING...
BUT THE OVERALL THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING HAS ENDED. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES
LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE BIGGER CONCERN BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE EXCESSIVE HEAT...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES OVER MOST OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
LIKELY BEYOND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES
WILL BE COMMON. INTERMITTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE
WITH THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO KEEP AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
PREPARE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAT RELATED ISSUES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
216 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0151 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FAYETTEVILLE            36.06N 94.16W
07/13/2010  M5.10 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WEST SIDE OF FAYETTEVILLE...FROM 1030 PM TO 130 AM.

&&

CAS