Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Tulsa, OK

316 
WGUS74 KTSA 200249
FFSTSA

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
949 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

OKC037-200645-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-100520T0645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CREEK OK-
949 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

...DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN CREEK COUNTY...

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM CDT FOR CREEK
COUNTY...

THROUGH 930PM THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS CREEK
COUNTY IN A ZONE INCLUDING DEPEW... BRISTOW... KELLYVILLE AND 
SAPULPA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN PARTS OF 
CREEK COUNTY THROUGH 11PM AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AGGRAVATE
THE FLOODING SITUATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. IT
ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY MOST SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR
DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. REMEMBER...MOST FLOOD
RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

&&

LAT...LON 3607 9661 3609 9620 3608 9604 3590 9603
      3586 9612 3586 9618 3583 9618 3582 9620
      3565 9661

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
700 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE CELLULAR UPDRAFTS WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR HAVE QUICKLY ATTAINED ROTATION...YET STORM MOTIONS
HAVE LARGELY REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE MEAN FLOW LIMITING
STRONGER HELICITY INGESTION AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
ROTATIONAL VALUES. THE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE TORNADO WARNED STORM
IN CREEK COUNTY AND OBVIOUS LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS WHICH HAVE TRACKED
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE WARM FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAS
LIFTED WELL INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH A MARKED GRADIENT NOTED
IN LFC HEIGHTS RUNNING FROM OSAGE COUNTY TO LE FLORE COUNTY.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY STORM SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL BE MOST
LIKELY TO TAP NEARER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY EVEN POST
SUNSET...HOWEVER CURRENT STORM MOTIONS MAY LIMIT THE RESIDENCE
TIME IN THIS MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SHOULD ANY OF THE PRESENT
MESOCYCLONES STRENGTHEN AND PROMOTE ANY SHIFT EASTWARD OR SLOWING
OF THE STORM MOTION THEN BOTH THE RESIDENCE TIME IN THE FAVORED
ZONE INCREASE ALONG WITH THE INGESTION OF NOTICEABLY HIGHER
HELICITY VALUES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
511 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
510 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

...TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EXISTS THIS
   EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM VINITA TO OZARK.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

DISCUSSION...
TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ALONG A WARM FRONT.  THIS FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY TORNADIC STORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

AS THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDS...ONE OR MORE LARGE STORM
COMPLEXES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH AN INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL.  THIS SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL LIKELY IMPACT MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

FLOODING WILL BE AN INCREASING CONCERN AS THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.  HEAVY RAINS OCCURRED EARLIER ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND THIS AREA WILL BE PRONE
TO RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING.  FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...HEAVY RAINS
ARE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED AND MAY PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...WITH THE STORM COMPLEX
SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THESE STORMS WOULD ALSO POSE A SEVERE
WEATHER RISK.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...AND SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY...THEN
ADDITIONAL RAINS WOULD WORSEN ANY ONGOING FLOOD POTENTIAL.

A MORE STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
501 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

OKZ065-192230-
OKFUSKEE OK-
501 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL OKFUSKEE

AT 459 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF
BEARDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OKEMAH...BEARDEN AND CASTLE.

THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 530 PM AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE HAIL AS IT APPROACHES OKEMAH. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

LAT...LON 3564 9633 3548 9609 3529 9643 3530 9644
      3545 9644 3545 9646
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 217DEG 26KT 3537 9643

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

OKZ065-066-071-192345-
MCINTOSH OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
610 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN OKMULGEE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN MCINTOSH

AT 610 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BRYANT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HENRYETTA...DEWAR...HOFFMAN...
GRAYSON AND SCHULTER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

LAT...LON 3561 9593 3550 9572 3528 9591 3533 9611
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 216DEG 22KT 3535 9601

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

OKZ064-065-192345-
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-
613 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN CREEK

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE

AT 613 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MILFAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH..

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

LAT...LON 3573 9644 3559 9662 3582 9663 3583 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 216DEG 22KT 3561 9672

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
736 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     HAIL             6 W MARAMEC             36.24N 96.79W
05/19/2010  E1.00 INCH       PAWNEE             OK   PUBLIC

            HAIL AT THE MCDONALDS ON THE TURNPIKE...HIGHWAY 412

&&

SAA