Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1048 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT STILL SITTING JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WARM FRONT ESTABLISHED A COUPLE OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. CONVECTION REMAINS THIS MORNING ACROSS
MAINLY FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING A
DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS SERVING TO
KEEP THE WARM FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MOMENT ANYWAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
LOCAL WRF DO NOT SHOW ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. CONSIDERING THIS
INFORMATION...ELECTED TO DECREASE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TO CHANCE CATEGORY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTION WILL APPROACH THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA...
AND THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDERS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE OTHER MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO DECREASE MAX TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER TODAY...WITH THE AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY OUT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
508 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
508 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

...MORE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EAST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING
THIS MORNING AS THUNDERSTORMS RUMBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS MORNING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL THE CONCERN. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PROVEN TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKERS AND COULD DUMP
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE
AREA BY MID-MORNING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR
EAST OF A VINITA TO OKEMAH LINE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL AGAIN BE THE CONCERN. HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.  THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTROL
THE AREA'S WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
540 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

OKZ076-201115-
LE FLORE OK-
540 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 615 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN LE FLORE

AT 540 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES WEST OF OCTAVIA TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF
WHITESBORO TO WHITESBORO TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF WHITESBORO...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...OCTAVIA...BIG CEDAR...MUSE AND WHITESBORO.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3463 9493 3470 9493 3482 9484 3486 9446
      3451 9446 3451 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 1040Z 269DEG 29KT 3450 9486 3465 9485
          3469 9485 3477 9478

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1012 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     HAIL             KELLYVILLE              35.94N 96.21W
05/19/2010  E1.75 INCH       CREEK              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

0750 PM     HAIL             4 W SAPULPA             36.00N 96.19W
05/19/2010  E1.00 INCH       CREEK              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            AT I-44 AND HIGHWAY 66/33 INTERCHANGE

&&

MEP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1024 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JENKS                   36.02N 95.97W
05/19/2010                   TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

            HEAVY STREET FLOODING IN JENKS

&&

MEP