Tornado Warning 5, NWS Topeka, KS

394 
WWUS53 KTOP 300021 RRA
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
721 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

KSC157-300100-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-100430T0100Z/
REPUBLIC-
721 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR 
NORTHWESTERN REPUBLIC COUNTY...

AT 715 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A DEVELOPING 
TORNADO NEAR COURTLAND...OR 14 MILES WEST OF BELLEVILLE. THE STORM 
WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SCANDIA...REPUBLIC AND MUNDEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR BASEMENT NOW! TORNADOES
MAY HAVE WINDS GREATER THAN 100 MPH. AVOID OVERPASSES AND WINDOWS...
AND USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9741 3971 9781 3968 9793 3995 9794
      4000 9792
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 229DEG 43KT 3982 9784

$$

776 
WWUS53 KTOP 300029 RRA
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
729 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

KSC157-300100-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-100430T0100Z/
REPUBLIC-
729 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR 
NORTHWESTERN REPUBLIC COUNTY...

AT 724 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF SCANDIA...OR 10 MILES WEST OF
BELLEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MUNDEN.

HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WAS ALSO REPORTED WITH THIS STORM NORTH OF 
COURTLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR BASEMENT NOW! TORNADOES
MAY HAVE WINDS GREATER THAN 100 MPH. AVOID OVERPASSES AND WINDOWS...
AND USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3979 9788 3994 9789 4000 9780 4000 9741
      3971 9781
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 229DEG 37KT 3986 9777

$$

165 
WWUS53 KTOP 300040
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
740 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

KSC157-300100-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-100430T0100Z/
REPUBLIC-
740 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL REPUBLIC COUNTY...

AT 738 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF MUNDEN...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF
BELLEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MUNDEN.

QUARTER SIZE HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM WEST AND 
NORTHWEST OF MUNDEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR BASEMENT NOW! TORNADOES
MAY HAVE WINDS GREATER THAN 100 MPH. AVOID OVERPASSES AND WINDOWS...
AND USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3987 9778 3998 9778 4000 9741 3977 9772
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 231DEG 38KT 3992 9766

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
620 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST WITH TIME AFTER 3Z.
DIFFICULT TO TIME EXACTLY AT THIS POINT HOWEVER GIVEN THE RISK FOR
RESTRICTED VIS CONDS IN THE CONVECTION WE WILL LEAVE THE TEMPO AT
MHK WHILE KEEPING VCTS AND CB IN THE FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD PERSIST AS WELL.

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.

A DRYLINE CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM NEAR MARYSVILLE BACK TO SALINA
WILL SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN SE COLORADO AND SW KANSAS. THE SFC LOW IS IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING THE ROCKIES...AND AN
ASSOCIATED JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE DRY LINE POTENTIALLY AS EARLY
AS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG SHEAR VALUES WILL PROMOTE RAPID STORM
ORGANIZATION PROVIDED THAT UPDRAFTS ARE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO
RESIST BEING SHEARED APART. MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
BY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO EJECT
ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANTICIPATE INITIAL SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE WILL
RAPIDLY TRANSLATE INTO MORE OF A LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN WITH A
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY
FROM 00Z ON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF
PERIOD DURING THE EVENING WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SURFACE BASED
AND COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGER SHEAR VALUES TO LOCALLY ENHANCE THE
TORNADIC THREAT WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME LARGELY ELEVATED
AND SHOULD SEE THE WIND AND TORNADO THREAT DECREASE. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE STORMS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST NEAR SURFACE BASED
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF...AND MESOSCALE ANALYSIS WILL BE
KEY IN ANALYZING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT. PURELY
ELEVATED CONVECTION WOULD FAVOR HAIL AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH
THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...WHILE ANY STORM ABLE TO BE ROOTED NEAR THE
SFC WOULD MAINTAIN THE WIND AND TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF WIND ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

EXPECT THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH AFTER DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND THE RETREATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER 06Z. THIS SLOW INITIAL PROGRESSION MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WITH THE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT
TO WAIT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING THE REGION...BUT
ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT TOMORROW WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON DEVELOPING
INSTABILITY AND THIS IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT...RATHER
THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD BE MUCH STRONG TO THE EAST OVER MISSOURI.

BARJENBRUCH

EXTENDED...FRI NIGHT-NEXT THU.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THROUGH MON WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND CHCS FOR PRECIP STILL POSSIBLE SAT-MON.
THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY PASS MON-TUES WHEN
ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/US WHICH WILL ACT TO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS
AROUND THE WEDS-THU TIME FRAME WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHCS THEN.
ALL IN ALL NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 12AM FOR
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

BARJENBRUCH/OMITT/BARJENBRUCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
321 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-302030-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
321 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SOUTH WINDS AT 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BETWEEN 4 AND
6 PM...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BETWEEN
6 AND 9 PM ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS AND WINDS TO 70 MPH THE PRIMARY RISKS. THERE IS ALSO A
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES... MAINLY PRIOR TO 11 PM.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED. DAMAGING
WINDS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS ARE THE MAIN
THREATS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A LOW END THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING AND LINGER INTO EAST CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY EAST OF A SABETHA TO EMPORIA LINE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING...AND MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE REST OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
552 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             5 SSW GLASCO            39.29N 97.88W
04/29/2010  E1.75 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED VIA TRAINED SPOTTER. HAIL
            DAMAGE SUSTAINED TO TRACTOR.

&&

COMITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
616 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             SE BELLEVILLE           39.82N 97.63W
04/29/2010  E1.25 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
629 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             1 E MUNDEN              39.91N 97.51W
04/29/2010  E1.50 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL

&&

COMITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             BELLEVILLE              39.82N 97.63W
04/29/2010  E0.75 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
644 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     HAIL             SSE CUBA                39.80N 97.46W
04/29/2010  E1.00 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
651 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HAIL             2 NNW HADDAM            39.88N 97.31W
04/29/2010  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE