Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
620 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST WITH TIME AFTER 3Z.
DIFFICULT TO TIME EXACTLY AT THIS POINT HOWEVER GIVEN THE RISK FOR
RESTRICTED VIS CONDS IN THE CONVECTION WE WILL LEAVE THE TEMPO AT
MHK WHILE KEEPING VCTS AND CB IN THE FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD PERSIST AS WELL.

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.

A DRYLINE CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM NEAR MARYSVILLE BACK TO SALINA
WILL SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN SE COLORADO AND SW KANSAS. THE SFC LOW IS IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING THE ROCKIES...AND AN
ASSOCIATED JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE DRY LINE POTENTIALLY AS EARLY
AS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG SHEAR VALUES WILL PROMOTE RAPID STORM
ORGANIZATION PROVIDED THAT UPDRAFTS ARE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO
RESIST BEING SHEARED APART. MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
BY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO EJECT
ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANTICIPATE INITIAL SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE WILL
RAPIDLY TRANSLATE INTO MORE OF A LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN WITH A
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY
FROM 00Z ON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF
PERIOD DURING THE EVENING WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SURFACE BASED
AND COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGER SHEAR VALUES TO LOCALLY ENHANCE THE
TORNADIC THREAT WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME LARGELY ELEVATED
AND SHOULD SEE THE WIND AND TORNADO THREAT DECREASE. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE STORMS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST NEAR SURFACE BASED
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF...AND MESOSCALE ANALYSIS WILL BE
KEY IN ANALYZING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT. PURELY
ELEVATED CONVECTION WOULD FAVOR HAIL AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH
THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...WHILE ANY STORM ABLE TO BE ROOTED NEAR THE
SFC WOULD MAINTAIN THE WIND AND TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF WIND ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

EXPECT THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH AFTER DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND THE RETREATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER 06Z. THIS SLOW INITIAL PROGRESSION MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WITH THE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT
TO WAIT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING THE REGION...BUT
ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT TOMORROW WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON DEVELOPING
INSTABILITY AND THIS IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT...RATHER
THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD BE MUCH STRONG TO THE EAST OVER MISSOURI.

BARJENBRUCH

EXTENDED...FRI NIGHT-NEXT THU.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THROUGH MON WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND CHCS FOR PRECIP STILL POSSIBLE SAT-MON.
THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY PASS MON-TUES WHEN
ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/US WHICH WILL ACT TO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS
AROUND THE WEDS-THU TIME FRAME WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHCS THEN.
ALL IN ALL NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 12AM FOR
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

BARJENBRUCH/OMITT/BARJENBRUCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
826 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-010130-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
826 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE WEATHER...HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND WINDS TO 70
MPH ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS
ALSO A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES... MAINLY PRIOR TO 11 PM.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND
IS EXPECTED. DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS ARE THE MAIN THREATS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A LOW END
THREAT FOR A TORNADO.

SOUTH WINDS AT 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING HOURS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING AND LINGER INTO EAST CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY EAST OF A SABETHA TO EMPORIA LINE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT...AND MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE
REST OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1218 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

KSZ022-035>037-300545-
DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-RILEY-
1218 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHWEST RILEY...GEARY...DICKINSON
AND NORTHWEST MORRIS COUNTIES...

THROUGH 1245 AM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 55 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF RILEY...GEARY...DICKINSON AND MORRIS COUNTIES. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE WOODBINE...CHAPMAN...
LATIMER...WHITE CITY...JUNCTION CITY...GRANDVIEW PLAZA...PARKERVILLE
AND OGDEN. MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 267 AND
308 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.