Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
433 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING
TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST ACROSS KS THIS AFTERNOON. EXCELLENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AT 850 MB AS WELL AS GOOD 700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION
OCCURRING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND HELPING TO FUEL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST AND EC KS. REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM INITIAL
THUNDERSTORMS CREATED SOME TRAINING THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WAVE SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT LATER
TONIGHT AND MAY KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY ON THURSDAY.

MODELS THEN BRING A TRAILING FRONT FROM NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE
LOW TO FAR NORTHERN KS ABOUT THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT AREA...WITH BEST LIFT WELL
NORTH. BOUNDARY THEN REMAINS NEAR KS/NEBRASKA BORDER FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PERIOD OF TIME. PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL MCS AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH IN
WNWLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THERE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE PERIODS OF DRY
WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT IS CHALLENGING TO PICK THESE
OUT. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG KS/NEBRASKA BORDER WITH
BEST CHANCES OF MORE EXTENSIVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE EC KS
COUNTIES.

&&

AVIATION...

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE NEAR MHK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WHILE TOP AND FOE MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR 20Z. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREAS BY 00Z THURSDAY AND
BRING AND END TO TSRA IN THE TERMINALS. HELD ONTO VCTS UNTIL 01Z
ATTM AND WILL NEED TO WATCH FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AS IT MAY REMAIN TO
THE NORTH OF TOP AND FOE. AFTER 02Z THURSDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

53

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-170830-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
345 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  THE VERY HEAVY RAIN FALLING ON SATURATED
GROUND MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS.  ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO
60 MPH AS WELL.

THE COTTONWOOD AND NEOSHO RIVER IN LYON AND COFFEY COUNTIES
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE REFER TO RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS
FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WITH A FRONT IN THE AREA...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN RAINFALL REPORTS OF ONE INCH OR
GREATER...AND ANY FLOODING OBSERVED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
430 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S ALMA                39.00N 96.29W
06/16/2010                   WABAUNSEE          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            99HWY NAR MILE MARKER 156 CLOSED DUE TO WATER RUNNING
            OVER ROAD.

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
432 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KEATS                   39.22N 96.71W
06/16/2010                   RILEY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FT. RILEY BLVD ANDS WILDCAT CREEK NEAR MHK AIRPORT CLOSED
            AND ANDERSON AVE NEAR KEATS DUE TO WATER RUNNING OVER
            ROAD.

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
437 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 E CARBONDALE          38.82N 95.61W
06/16/2010  E65 MPH          OSAGE              KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EPKL