Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1255 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 18 UTC AVIATION AND SHORT TERM WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE AHEAD OF AN NORTHEAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND IN AN AREA OF
850-700 MB WARM ADVECTION. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE CWA. DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS ANALYZED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS AT 17Z WHICH ALSO LINES UP WITH
THETA-E RIDGE. PRECIPITAL WATER RANGES AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE CWA. EXPECTING CONTINUAL SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING RAINFALL
RATES AS HIGH AS TWO INCHES AND HOUR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 850
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
KANSAS.

53

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE NEAR MHK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WHILE TOP AND FOE MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR 20Z. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREAS BY 00Z THURSDAY AND
BRING AND END TO TSRA IN THE TERMINALS. HELD ONTO VCTS UNTIL 01Z
ATTM AND WILL NEED TO WATCH FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AS IT MAY REMAIN TO
THE NORTH OF TOP AND FOE. AFTER 02Z THURSDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

53

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

NOW...FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH. 00Z TOP UPPER AIR SOUNDING AND SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE CHARACTERIZE OUR CURRENT ENVIRONMENT THE DRIEST ITS BEEN IN
SEVERAL DAYS...DRY OF COURSE BEING A RELATIVE WORD. WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. AREA WIND PROFILERS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS HAVE RESPONDED TO THE APPROACH OF THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC STATES...WITH A NOTABLE VEERING OF THE
H85-H7 LAYER TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LIKEWISE...A CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED AND
11U-3.9U SAT SHOWS AGGRAVATED CU CURRENTLY INCREASING OVER WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK ASCENT AND
INCREASING WAA/MOISTURE REGIME.

TODAY...ANTICIPATE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE TODAY OVER THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WAA CONTINUES WITH ONLY WEAK TO
MODERATE CAP. MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY RETURN INTO THE AREA...WITH PW
VALUES INCREASING BY 0.50IN BY AFTERNOON. VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
COVERAGE. SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP CHANCES BUT STILL THINK WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 PRIOR TO CONVECTION. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE A FEW HOURS POST-SUNSET AS PEAK INSTABILITY
WANES AND INCREASING EML.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND BEGIN TO
SLOW ITS PROGRESS. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...WITH +12C H7
TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THU. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHETHER OR
NOT ANY CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
NEBRASKA CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF SOUTHEASTWARD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AT ANY RATE...CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA OVER THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FOR THIS PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON FRIDAY WITH REGARDS TO STRENGTH OF EML
AND CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR ALONG THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST FOR ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE FAR NERN CWA...AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL OF COURSE BE DICTATED BY THE WARMTH OF THE
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...AND
MUCH CAN CHANGE BASED ON FRONTAL POSITION BASED ON PREVIOUS DAYS
CONVECTION INFLUENCE NOT YET RESOLVABLE. HOWEVER...SCENARIO SEEMS
REASONABLE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. LITTLE
CHANGES TO FORECAST SATURDAY AND BEYOND.

BLAIR

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-170830-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
345 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  THE VERY HEAVY RAIN FALLING ON SATURATED
GROUND MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS.  ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO
60 MPH AS WELL.

THE COTTONWOOD AND NEOSHO RIVER IN LYON AND COFFEY COUNTIES
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE REFER TO RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS
FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WITH A FRONT IN THE AREA...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN RAINFALL REPORTS OF ONE INCH OR
GREATER...AND ANY FLOODING OBSERVED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
216 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             5 N JUNCTION CITY       39.10N 96.83W
06/16/2010  E1.25 INCH       RILEY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
232 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0213 PM     HAIL             OGDEN                   39.11N 96.71W
06/16/2010  E1.00 INCH       RILEY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
233 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KEATS                   39.22N 96.71W
06/16/2010                   RILEY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADS REPORTED FLOODED BETWEEN MANHATTAN, KEATS
            AND OGDEN

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
244 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ENE JUNCTION CITY     39.05N 96.78W
06/16/2010                   GEARY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            3 INCHES OF WATER COVERING THE WEST BOUND LANES OF 170.

&&

BYRNE

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