Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
131 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
FORECAST REMAINS MUCH OF THE SAME FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT CAUSING AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND DOWN INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...
THOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WEST INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LEADING TO LESS SUBSIDENCE AND
THEREFORE MORE CONVECTION OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IF
CONVECTION IS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY COOL DOWN
EVEN FURTHER...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS UP TO 50
FOR INLAND LOCATIONS TOMORROW AND THE ALL LAND AREAS FOR FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BUT
WILL COOL A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO
LOWER HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS WEST. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 90S
INLAND. EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO CONTINUE TO READ OVER 100
DEGREES AT SOME INLAND LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
THE MID 70S INLAND AND LOW 80S NEAR THE COAST EACH NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A FRONTAL TYPE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN FL WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH...WITH THE TROUGH DISSIPATING...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE EXITS THE STATE MON AND CONTINUES MOVING
NORTH...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY MIDWEEK.

WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS OVER THE WEEKEND TO SE
AND EAST FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADIENT RELAXED ENOUGH FOR
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE 40 PERCENT FOR THE WEEKEND BUT THEN THE RETREATING
TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON THE SE AND EAST FLOW
WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO DROP TO 30 PERCENT STARTING MON.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL...BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IS IN
THE PROCESS OF SETTING UP AND WILL HELP KEEP THE BULK OF SCATTERED
TSRA EAST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND WILL LIMIT THE TAF SITES TO
JUST VICINITY REMARKS UNTIL 02Z. WINDS COLLAPSE TO VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT SW LATE THU MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  93  79  92 /  20  30  20  50
FMY  77  94  76  93 /  20  40  20  50
GIF  77  96  76  93 /  30  50  20  50
SRQ  77  92  76  91 /  20  30  20  50
BKV  74  94  73  92 /  20  30  20  50 KTBWAFDTBW
SPG  82  92  81  91 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING-69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
515 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-170400-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
515 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE
COAST. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
ANOTHER VERY HOT AND MUGGY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SOAR
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ALONG THE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 90S
OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PRODUCE HIGH HEAT INDICES IN THE 102 TO 108
DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IF YOU MUST BE
OUTDOORS FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME TODAY...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.
WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT AND LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING. RESERVE STRENUOUS
EXERCISE FOR THE EARLY MORNING OR EVENING HOURS. STAY NEAR AIR
CONDITIONED LOCATIONS IF POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST TO MID
TO UPPER 90S INLAND. THE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH MODERATE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAT INDICES IN THE 100
TO 106 DEGREE RANGE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

MCNATT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
451 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

FLZ039-162130-
LEVY-
451 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN LEVY COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A THUNDERSTORM
LOCATED NEAR WILLISTONSTATIONARY...WILL AFFECT WILLISTON...UNTIL 530
PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA
SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2948 8254 2949 8242 2948 8240 2922 8239
      2921 8240 2921 8246 2923 8253 2951 8260
      2952 8255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 233DEG 2KT 2943 8244

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
538 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

FLZ052-162215-
POLK-
538 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN AND CENTRAL POLK
COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A THUNDERSTORM
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM AUBURNDALE TO LAKELAND HIGHLANDS
TO BRADLEY JUNCTION...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM AUBURNDALE TO
BARTOW TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BARTOW...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH...WILL
AFFECT WINSTON...WILLOW OAK...MULBERRY...BARTOW...LAKE WALES AND
LAKELAND HIGHLANDS...UNTIL 615 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA
SIZE HAIL AND SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED NEAR LAKELAND..
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2822 8157 2796 8148 2766 8149 2768 8204
      2791 8203 2828 8204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 254DEG 6KT 2805 8182 2794 8192
          2774 8192

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
541 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     HAIL             2 NNE LAKELAND          28.06N 81.95W
06/16/2010  E0.25 INCH       POLK               FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL NEAR LAKELAND

&&

TBARRON