Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
131 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
FORECAST REMAINS MUCH OF THE SAME FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT CAUSING AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND DOWN INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...
THOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WEST INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LEADING TO LESS SUBSIDENCE AND
THEREFORE MORE CONVECTION OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IF
CONVECTION IS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY COOL DOWN
EVEN FURTHER...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS UP TO 50
FOR INLAND LOCATIONS TOMORROW AND THE ALL LAND AREAS FOR FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BUT
WILL COOL A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO
LOWER HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS WEST. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 90S
INLAND. EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO CONTINUE TO READ OVER 100
DEGREES AT SOME INLAND LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
THE MID 70S INLAND AND LOW 80S NEAR THE COAST EACH NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A FRONTAL TYPE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN FL WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH...WITH THE TROUGH DISSIPATING...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE EXITS THE STATE MON AND CONTINUES MOVING
NORTH...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY MIDWEEK.

WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS OVER THE WEEKEND TO SE
AND EAST FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADIENT RELAXED ENOUGH FOR
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE 40 PERCENT FOR THE WEEKEND BUT THEN THE RETREATING
TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON THE SE AND EAST FLOW
WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO DROP TO 30 PERCENT STARTING MON.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL...BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IS IN
THE PROCESS OF SETTING UP AND WILL HELP KEEP THE BULK OF SCATTERED
TSRA EAST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND WILL LIMIT THE TAF SITES TO
JUST VICINITY REMARKS UNTIL 02Z. WINDS COLLAPSE TO VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT SW LATE THU MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  93  79  92 /  20  30  20  50
FMY  77  94  76  93 /  20  40  20  50
GIF  77  96  76  93 /  30  50  20  50
SRQ  77  92  76  91 /  20  30  20  50
BKV  74  94  73  92 /  20  30  20  50 KTBWAFDTBW
SPG  82  92  81  91 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING-69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
515 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-170400-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
515 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE
COAST. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
ANOTHER VERY HOT AND MUGGY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SOAR
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ALONG THE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 90S
OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PRODUCE HIGH HEAT INDICES IN THE 102 TO 108
DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IF YOU MUST BE
OUTDOORS FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME TODAY...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.
WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT AND LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING. RESERVE STRENUOUS
EXERCISE FOR THE EARLY MORNING OR EVENING HOURS. STAY NEAR AIR
CONDITIONED LOCATIONS IF POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST TO MID
TO UPPER 90S INLAND. THE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH MODERATE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAT INDICES IN THE 100
TO 106 DEGREE RANGE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

MCNATT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1215 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 AM     WATER SPOUT      4 W PALM HARBOR         28.09N 82.83W
06/16/2010                   GMZ853             FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEDIA FOWARDED PICTURE FROM PUBLIC OF WATERSPOUT OFFSHORE
            HONEYMOON ISLAND.

&&

RKR

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