Alert archive / Arizona / Tornado Watches in 2010

Tornado Watch 693

October 6, 2010Coconino County, Yavapai County, Arizona

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 6, 2010, 6:51 AM MST for Coconino County, Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 6, 2010, 6:51 AM MST (13:51 UTC)
Expired
Oct 6, 2010, 9:31 AM MST
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt

Counties Coconino County, AZ, Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
20%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
40%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

20 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 6, 6:53 AM MSTTornado WarningFGZCoconino, Yavapai22 min
Oct 6, 6:58 AM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZYavapai32 min
Oct 6, 7:18 AM MSTTornado WarningFGZCoconino27 min
Oct 6, 7:31 AM MSTTornado WarningFGZCoconino, Yavapai44 min
Oct 6, 7:33 AM MSTTornado WarningFGZCoconino, Yavapai27 min
Oct 6, 7:42 AM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino33 min
Oct 6, 7:46 AM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino, Yavapai44 min
Oct 6, 8:06 AM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZYavapai24 min
Oct 6, 8:06 AM MSTTornado WarningFGZCoconino39 min
Oct 6, 8:14 AM MSTTornado WarningFGZCoconino, Yavapai46 min
Oct 6, 8:19 AM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZYavapai26 min
Oct 6, 8:19 AM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino26 min
Oct 6, 8:29 AM MSTTornado WarningFGZYavapai46 min
Oct 6, 8:32 AM MSTTornado WarningFGZYavapai28 min
Oct 6, 8:49 AM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino26 min
Oct 6, 8:53 AM MSTTornado WarningFGZCoconino37 min
Oct 6, 9:00 AM MSTTornado WarningFGZCoconino, Yavapai45 min
Oct 6, 9:05 AM MSTTornado WarningFGZCoconino, Yavapai25 min
Oct 6, 9:25 AM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino35 min
Oct 6, 9:30 AM MSTTornado WarningFGZCoconino, Yavapai45 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 47 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2010-10-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 376 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2010-10-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 286 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
376 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-12 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
638 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
286 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
320 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.6
Supercell composite
4.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 5, 6:06 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGila, Maricopa, Pima, Pinal, Yavapai54 min
Oct 5, 11:57 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGila, Maricopa, Pinal2 hr
Oct 6, 3:20 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGila, Maricopa, Pinal, Yavapai115 min
Oct 6, 4:07 AM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCoconino, Gila, Maricopa, Navajo, Yavapai6 hr
Oct 6, 6:57 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCYavapai2 hr
Oct 6, 8:23 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCoconino2 hr
Oct 6, 8:38 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCApache2 hr
Oct 6, 9:29 AM MSTTornado WatchSPCApache, Coconino, Gila, Navajo, Yavapai7 hr
Oct 6, 11:08 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCApache, Navajo2 hr
Oct 6, 11:12 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCochise, Graham, Greenlee63 min
Oct 6, 2:43 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCApache, Navajo92 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arizona, 2010Every tornado watch in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.