Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
117 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ZONE UPDATE JUST ISSUED FOR ADD THE NEW TOR WATCH #287 FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH 21Z. ALSO RAISED POPS AND ADD
MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR HAVE
BEEN COMMON WITH THE BOW ECHO.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  74  87  75  94 /  70  40  50  30  20
MLU  92  75  91  75  95 /  60  30  40  20  20
DEQ  87  75  85  71  91 /  50  40  60  30  20
TXK  87  74  86  73  93 /  60  40  50  30  20
ELD  90  74  90  74  94 /  60  30  40  20  20
TYR  82  75  87  74  94 /  80  50  60  30  20
GGG  84  74  88  74  94 /  70  50  60  30  20
LFK  85  76  88  75  94 /  70  50  50  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1047 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-101100-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1047 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT NORTH INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
SEND AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH NORTHEAST INTO MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
STRONG INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE...NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...AS THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE
SAME AREAS OF EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL LIKELY FALL OVER MUCH OF
EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO
FIVE INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE CURRENT MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ANY EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY RUNOFF
AND CREATE FLASH FLOODING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
FARTHER EAST ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHCENTRAL
ARKANSAS...WELL EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARMER
TEMPERATURES...GREATER INSTABILITY...AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS TO 45
MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
THURSDAY...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS SHIFTING NORTH INTO THESE
AREAS DURING THE DAY. FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...AS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL REDEVELOPS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
LOW...AND TRAINS OVER THE SAME AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND POSSIBLY
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
DIMINISHES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND HAM RADIO
OPERATORS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER EAST TEXAS.

15

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