Wind Advisory 4, NWS Springfield, MO

541 
WWUS73 KSGF 301457
NPWSGF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
957 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055-066>068-077>079-088>090-093>095-101>103-
301600-
/O.EXP.KSGF.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-100430T1500Z/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-BARTON-
CEDAR-POLK-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-MCDONALD-
BARRY-STONE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...NEVADA...
APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...HERMITAGE...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...
STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...
SPRINGFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...
ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...
GALENA
957 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING. 

WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

$$

LINDENBERG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL DEAL WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY...STRONG AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN AND IS BEING MET
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FAR WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE THE WIND
ADVISORY AS IS UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING AS THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS MAY RELAX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING...HOWEVER BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM A WARM AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AND GULF MOISTURE IS
SURGING NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING A MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS A STRONG CAP
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...BUT THIS CAP WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MOISTURE IS SURGING QUITE RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH THE WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY WARM TOMORROW.
QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ANY CLOUD COVER THAT COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY. THERE ARE A COUPLE POSSIBLE SOURCES FOR CLOUD
COVER...ONE IS FROM CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ANOTHER IS STRATUS POSSIBLY
FORMING AND SPREADING NORTH WITHIN THE BAND OF INCREASED MOISTURE.
THERE ARE ALSO QUESTIONS IF STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING...WHICH
WILL ALSO AFFECT INSTABILITY.

FEEL THE MODELS MAY BE WEAKENING THE CAP TO SOON...AND THE CAP
WILL ACTUALLY REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT MORNING CONVECTION. THIS WOULD FAVOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THERE
WILL BE INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED THE EHWO SEVERE RISK LEVEL TO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY SURFACE BASED STORMS AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP QUITE QUICKLY. AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A SEVERE WIND RISK
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...LEAVING A DRY PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL
NORTH OF THE FRONT....AND ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE WARM SECTOR TO GENERALLY
MOVE BACK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

WISE

&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS STILL TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA.  WHILE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA
WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS UNTIL THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY EVENING.  BY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WITH THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA.
SHOULD ADVECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS LIKELY BACK INTO THE 80S.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD TONIGHT
AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE WELL AHEAD OF A FRONT ACROSS
THE PLAINS. CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE TOWARD MORNING WITH A BROKEN
MVFR TO VFR DECK DEVELOPING FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT BUT CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
701 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-010015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
701 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...ELEVATED.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION:

  GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING RESULTING
  IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
  THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA ON FRIDAY. AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS FOR SATURDAY GENERALLY ALONG
  AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR...WITH A LIMITED THREAT
  TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS AREA. THERE IS ALSO A LIMITED RISK
  OF FLOODING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
  THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. FINALLY...NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
  GREATER THAN 30 MPH ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

  DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD
  OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF
  THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG WIND SHEAR
  AND INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT THE
  DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT
  WEEK...BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
  WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER