Tornado Warning 27, NWS Springfield, MO

907 
WWUS53 KSGF 111952
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

MOC131-112015-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-100711T2015Z/
MILLER MO-
252 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
MILLER COUNTY...

AT 247 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A TORNADO NEAR TUSCUMBIA...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF OSAGE 
BEACH...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE MARYS HOME...SAINT ELIZABETH...TUSCUMBIA
AND ULMAN.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE LAKE OF THE OZARKS STATE PARK.

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN TUSCUMBIA AT 245 PM.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3809 9232 3817 9258 3834 9246 3833 9221
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 280DEG 25KT 3822 9245

$$

HATCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
220 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

.DISCUSSION...

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...
INITIALLY DISCRETE CELLS STARTING TO FORM INTO AN MCS OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS OF 19Z. STILL SEEING SOME ROTATION
WITHIN A COUPLE OF THESE CELLS. CELL OVER HENRY COUNTY IN WEST
CENTRAL MO STARTING TO BOW AND ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND HAS A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND. NEW 18Z SOUNDING FROM SGF
SHOWS 3600+ J/KG CAPES. WOULD EXPECT CURRENT TREND TO COUNTINUE
WITH AN ESE MOVEMENT AND POSSIBLE CONTINUED ACCELERATION WITH
FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS HEADING ESE. THIS WOULD KEEP
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS MCS MAINLY EAST OF AN OSCEOLA TO
BRANSON LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

LINDENBERG

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS
AND MISSOURI CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH AN INCREASING UNSTABLE AIR
MASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI WITH SEVERE STORMS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL MO.
DECENT JET MAX THIS FAR SOUTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WAS HELPING IN
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50KTS OVER NORTHERN PART OF CWA AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH CAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK OVER WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STILL HAVE NOT SEEN
ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA BUT STILL VERY
UNSTABLE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL DEVLEOPMENT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS AS EXPECTED HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH ALL OF THE
MESOSCALE FEATURES BUT COULD SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES SET UP. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOK
TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

LINDENBERG

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A FLATTENING
OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND A SURFACE FRONT TO TRACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY.  HAVE LOW POPS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY DAY NIGHT IN
THE NORTHWEST CWA AND CWA WIDE ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT
OVER THE AREA.  MAIN STORM TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY THUNDER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AT ALL AIRPORTS AND USED TEMPO GROUPS TO HIGHLIGHT
MOST LIKELY TIMING OF STORMS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION BECOMES MODERATELY TO HIGHLY UNSTABLE. HAVE
KEPT WIND PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
BUT WOULD CAUTION THAT YOU COULD SEE A TEMPORARY SHIFT TO THE
NORTH OR WEST NEAR STORMS.

HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF LOW LEVEL JET FOR TONIGHT WITH TEMPO
GROUPS FOR FOG AND STRATUS FROM AROUND 09-12Z.

TERRY

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-121700-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1154 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.
  ELEVATED THREAT FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING THREAT.
  LIMITED THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
  LIMITED FLOODING THREAT.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING

  DISCUSSION...

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WILL TRACK
EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF QUARTERS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALSO EXISTS. WHILE THE
ENTIRE AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE INITIAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL AFFECT AREAS OF
WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS...HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...AND SHOULD MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  THERE IS AN ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
  AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS A THREAT FOR
  FLOODING.

  HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES ON
  WEDNESDAY AND BETWEEN 95 AND 100 ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SPOTTERS
BEING NEEDED FURTHER SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
210 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0157 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNW VERSAILLES        38.48N 92.87W
07/11/2010  E60 MPH          MORGAN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY SHERRIFF REPORTS 60 MPH WIND GUST AND DIME SIZE
            HAIL AT INTERSECTION OF HWY BB AND HWY D NW OF
            VERSAILLES.

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 PM     HAIL             6 NNE STOVER            38.52N 92.95W
07/11/2010  E0.50 INCH       MORGAN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MORGAN COUNTY SHERRIFF REPORTS HALF INCH HAIL AT
            INTERSECTION OF HWY BB AND HWY N.

&&

JCOLUCCI