Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
606 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...
...ISSUED AT 220 PM...
INITIALLY DISCRETE CELLS STARTING TO FORM INTO AN MCS OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS OF 19Z. STILL SEEING SOME ROTATION
WITHIN A COUPLE OF THESE CELLS. CELL OVER HENRY COUNTY IN WEST
CENTRAL MO STARTING TO BOW AND ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND HAS A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND. NEW 18Z SOUNDING FROM SGF
SHOWS 3600+ J/KG CAPES. WOULD EXPECT CURRENT TREND TO COUNTINUE
WITH AN ESE MOVEMENT AND POSSIBLE CONTINUED ACCELERATION WITH
FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS HEADING ESE. THIS WOULD KEEP
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS MCS MAINLY EAST OF AN OSCEOLA TO
BRANSON LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

LINDENBERG

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS
AND MISSOURI CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH AN INCREASING UNSTABLE AIR
MASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI WITH SEVERE STORMS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL MO.
DECENT JET MAX THIS FAR SOUTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WAS HELPING IN
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50KTS OVER NORTHERN PART OF CWA AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH CAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK OVER WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STILL HAVE NOT SEEN
ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA BUT STILL VERY
UNSTABLE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL DEVLEOPMENT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS AS EXPECTED HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH ALL OF THE
MESOSCALE FEATURES BUT COULD SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES SET UP. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOK
TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

LINDENBERG

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A FLATTENING
OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND A SURFACE FRONT TO TRACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY.  HAVE LOW POPS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY DAY NIGHT IN
THE NORTHWEST CWA AND CWA WIDE ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT
OVER THE AREA.  MAIN STORM TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
TO JUST NORTH OF SGF WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND MAY CLIP THE SGF FORECAST POINT DURING THE FIRST
COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO REMAIN EAST OF
THE JLN/BBG SITES TONIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT SGF/BBG WITH 30-35 KTS OF SHEAR EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY HAVE SGF DROPPING INTO MVFR CATEGORY WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER IF A MORE SOUTHERN PUSH CAN OCCUR...THE
HEAVIER RAIN SHIELD WOULD LIKELY DROP SGF INTO IFR CATEGORY.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
717 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-130030-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
717 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...ELEVATED.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

ELEVATED RISK OF DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
ELEVATED RISK OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
LIMITED RISK OF TORNADOES.
ELEVATED RISK OF FLOODING.

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING...

ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN A BAND FROM NEAR NEVADA TO
SPRINGFIELD TO ALTON THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

  DISCUSSION...

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ALONG WIND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS WILL PERSIST IN A BAND FROM NEAR NEVADA TO SPRINGFIELD TO
ALTON THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  THERE IS AN ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
  AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS A THREAT FOR
  FLOODING.

  HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES ON
  WEDNESDAY AND BETWEEN 95 AND 100 ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED FROM NEVADA TO
SPRINGFIELD TO ALTON WITH THE ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
703 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND GST     ASH GROVE               37.32N 93.58W
07/11/2010  E50 MPH          GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LINDENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
704 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

MOZ089-120030-
DADE MO-
704 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DADE COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 659 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF NEOLA...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GREENFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

CCC/HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
713 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W BRANDON             38.51N 93.46W
07/11/2010                   BENTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            6 TO 12 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN. WINDS ALSO DETACHED
            PORCH FROM HOUSE AND DAMAGED ROOF. TIME ESTIMATED BASED
            ON RADAR. RELAYED FROM EAX.

&&

JSS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
722 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE SPRINGFIELD        37.17N 93.25W
07/11/2010  E50 MPH          GREENE             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
723 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE SPRINGFIELD        37.17N 93.25W
07/11/2010  E50.00 MPH       GREENE             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JSS