Flash Flood Warning 82, NWS Springfield, MO

289 
WGUS73 KSGF 120223
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
923 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

MOC039-057-067-077-091-149-153-167-215-225-229-120500-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0082.000000T0000Z-100712T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREENE MO-WRIGHT MO-WEBSTER MO-DADE MO-TEXAS MO-POLK MO-CEDAR MO-
DOUGLAS MO-HOWELL MO-OREGON MO-OZARK MO-
923 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
DADE...EASTERN DOUGLAS...EASTERN OZARK...GREENE...HOWELL...SOUTHERN
CEDAR...SOUTHERN POLK...SOUTHERN WRIGHT...SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS...
WEBSTER AND WESTERN OREGON COUNTIES...

AT 915 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES AND LOCAL RAINFALL REPORTS INDICATED THAT 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES FELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
WARNED AREA WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL. STREET FLOODING 
WAS REPORTED AT A FEW INTERSECTIONS WITHIN THE CITY OF SPRINGFIELD. 
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNED AREA LATE THIS 
EVENING AS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING EAST INTO THE AREA.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 3652 9243 3690 9242 3712 9299 3738 9408
      3760 9406 3759 9344 3749 9317 3742 9318
      3742 9307 3745 9307 3693 9166 3652 9161

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
606 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...
...ISSUED AT 220 PM...
INITIALLY DISCRETE CELLS STARTING TO FORM INTO AN MCS OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS OF 19Z. STILL SEEING SOME ROTATION
WITHIN A COUPLE OF THESE CELLS. CELL OVER HENRY COUNTY IN WEST
CENTRAL MO STARTING TO BOW AND ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND HAS A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND. NEW 18Z SOUNDING FROM SGF
SHOWS 3600+ J/KG CAPES. WOULD EXPECT CURRENT TREND TO COUNTINUE
WITH AN ESE MOVEMENT AND POSSIBLE CONTINUED ACCELERATION WITH
FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS HEADING ESE. THIS WOULD KEEP
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS MCS MAINLY EAST OF AN OSCEOLA TO
BRANSON LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

LINDENBERG

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS
AND MISSOURI CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH AN INCREASING UNSTABLE AIR
MASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI WITH SEVERE STORMS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL MO.
DECENT JET MAX THIS FAR SOUTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WAS HELPING IN
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50KTS OVER NORTHERN PART OF CWA AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH CAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK OVER WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STILL HAVE NOT SEEN
ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA BUT STILL VERY
UNSTABLE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL DEVLEOPMENT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS AS EXPECTED HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH ALL OF THE
MESOSCALE FEATURES BUT COULD SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES SET UP. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOK
TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

LINDENBERG

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A FLATTENING
OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND A SURFACE FRONT TO TRACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY.  HAVE LOW POPS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY DAY NIGHT IN
THE NORTHWEST CWA AND CWA WIDE ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT
OVER THE AREA.  MAIN STORM TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
TO JUST NORTH OF SGF WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND MAY CLIP THE SGF FORECAST POINT DURING THE FIRST
COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO REMAIN EAST OF
THE JLN/BBG SITES TONIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT SGF/BBG WITH 30-35 KTS OF SHEAR EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY HAVE SGF DROPPING INTO MVFR CATEGORY WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER IF A MORE SOUTHERN PUSH CAN OCCUR...THE
HEAVIER RAIN SHIELD WOULD LIKELY DROP SGF INTO IFR CATEGORY.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-121700-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1154 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.
  ELEVATED THREAT FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING THREAT.
  LIMITED THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
  LIMITED FLOODING THREAT.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING

  DISCUSSION...

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WILL TRACK
EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF QUARTERS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALSO EXISTS. WHILE THE
ENTIRE AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE INITIAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL AFFECT AREAS OF
WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS...HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...AND SHOULD MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  THERE IS AN ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
  AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS A THREAT FOR
  FLOODING.

  HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES ON
  WEDNESDAY AND BETWEEN 95 AND 100 ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SPOTTERS
BEING NEEDED FURTHER SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
637 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BOLIVAR                 37.61N 93.41W
07/11/2010                   POLK               MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            STREET FLOODING AND STALLED CAR IN BOLIVAR.

&&

MTERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
642 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TUSCUMBIA               38.23N 92.46W
07/11/2010                   MILLER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODED LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

&&

MTERRY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
700 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

MOZ091-092-120030-
WRIGHT MO-WEBSTER MO-
700 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER AND WESTERN
WRIGHT COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 654 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF MARSHFIELD...MOVING SOUTH AT 25
MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

CCC/HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
702 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             10 NW SPRINGFIELD       37.30N 93.41W
07/11/2010  M1.00 INCH       GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
703 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND GST     ASH GROVE               37.32N 93.58W
07/11/2010  E50 MPH          GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LINDENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
704 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

MOZ089-120030-
DADE MO-
704 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DADE COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 659 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF NEOLA...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GREENFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

CCC/HATCH