Flash Flood Watch 13, NWS Springfield, MO

Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Benton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Maries County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Miller County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
722 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED 710 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010/
CONVECTION THAT IMPACTED PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON HAD DIMINISHED THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND A
CONTAMINATED AIR MASS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TODAYS HAD
REINFORCED A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS
INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI. SEVERE CONVECTION HAD
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THESE STORMS AS
THEY SPREAD EAST AND INTERACT WITH THE EAST TO WEST ORIENTED
BOUNDARY. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS EVENING
AFTER 02Z WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 71. A DIMINISHING RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS OVERNIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI.

IN ADDITION...WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TAKING SHAPE TO OUR WEST
ACROSS KANSAS AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE
REGION...THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS INCREASING
FOR TONIGHT. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
AREAS NORTHWEST OF A BRANSON TO SALEM LINE.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CURRENTLY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING MCS FROM THIS
MORNING...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN CWA FROM THE MCS AND THE CURRENT STORMS OVER THE AREA.
THIS HAD LIMITED HEATING AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH IT BEING MUCH WEAKER
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS ARE PARALLEL TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS OUTFLOW
DOMINANT AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE ONGOING STORMS.
WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST AND WEAKEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ONCE THEY MOVE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 WHERE
WEAKER INSTABILITY RESIDES.

THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS DID NOT HANDLE THE MCS THIS MORNING OR
THE CURRENT CONVECTION VERY WELL AT ALL...SO THEIR DEPICTION OF
THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE GREATLY FLAWED OVER THE AREA
DUE TO THE POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE MODEL. CLOUDS ARE STARTING
TO CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE
IS STARTING TO INCREASE IN THESE AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THEREFORE...THINK STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO INITIALIZE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DISCRETE STORMS ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

THESE STORMS SHOULD THEN MOVE TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY FORM
INTO A LINE OF STORMS AND THEN PUSH INTO THE WESTERN CWA THIS
EVENING. WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IF THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS STARTING TO OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...FEEL A SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THESE LINES MOVE INTO THE
AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 71 CORRIDOR. THINK THE MAIN
RISK WILL BE STRONG WINDS. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD THEN WEAKEN
AS THEY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHERE MORE STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD RESIDE.

COOLER CONDITIONS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN START TO
BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
WHICH WILL TRY TO PUSH A FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THINK THE RIDGE WILL
HOLD STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FRONT AND ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY THIS
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 653 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010/

A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS TONIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO IMPACT AREA TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY BEFORE CLEARING.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BRANSON
TO SALEM.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
444 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROGERSVILLE             37.12N 93.06W
09/15/2010                   WEBSTER            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

AFOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
459 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

MOZ091-092-095-096-152245-
WRIGHT MO-WEBSTER MO-CHRISTIAN MO-DOUGLAS MO-
459 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN...
SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER...SOUTHERN WRIGHT AND WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES
UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 455 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DUNCAN TO ELKHEAD...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ODIN AND GOODHOPE BY 505 PM CDT.
  HARTVILLE BY 515 PM CDT.
  AVA AND MANSFIELD BY 520 PM CDT.
  SQUIRES BY 525 PM CDT.
  BRUSHYKNOB AND NORWOOD BY 535 PM CDT.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN...SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER...SOUTHERN
WRIGHT AND WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...INCLUDING SEYMOUR...
HARTVILLE...MANSFIELD...AVA AND NORWOOD...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
506 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E ROGERSVILLE         37.12N 93.00W
09/15/2010                   WEBSTER            MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREE DOWN ACROSS ONE LANE OF WEST BOUND HIGHWAY 60

&&

AFOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
532 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW FORDLAND           37.12N 92.97W
09/15/2010                   WEBSTER            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROOF BLOWN OFF BARN AND NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

&&

AFOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
551 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW ROGERSVILLE        37.15N 93.09W
09/15/2010                   GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF DAMAGE AND 30 TREES DOWN

&&

AFOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
552 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ESE SPRINGFIELD       37.18N 93.20W
09/15/2010                   GREENE             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREE DOWN

&&

AFOSTER