Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.  LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...AND WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE STORMS.

A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S...ALONG WITH DEW
POINTS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  MIXED LAYER CAPES HAVE
INCREASED TO AROUND 3500-4000 J/KG.  WIND SHEAR IS QUITE MODEST AS
0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS ANALYZED BY THE RUC ARE SHOWING 15-20
KTS...THEREFORE SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IS LIKELY.

GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRONTAL
SYSTEM...TRAINING OF STORMS IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.

CRAMER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.

CURRENTLY...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FIRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM MORNING MCS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
CWA. SURFACE FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FROM NEAR
WICHITA TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF KANSAS CITY. MLCAPES OF 3500-4000
J/KG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
2000-3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MUCH OF THE AREA OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI REMAINS CAPPED FROM THE EARLIER MORNING
CONVECTION. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH <30KTS AND
WITH WBZ VALUES ON THE HIGH END WOULD EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE RISK
TO BE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND A LIMITED RISK OF LARGE HAIL.

FORECAST...
CONVECTION HAS YET TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT BUT BELIEVE
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. HIGHEST POPS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA AS BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH LATER IN THE EVENING AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES AND SHEAR REMAINS RATHER WEAK.

SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA
ON THURSDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY.

WARM AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON FRIDAY WITH 850 TEMPERATURES RISING BACK ABOVE 20 DEG C BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO MID
90S OVER SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CWA AND AROUND 90 ELSEWHERE ON FRIDAY
WITH LOW TO MID 90S EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY. MAIN CONVECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA BUT COULD SEE MORE
CONVECTION SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRIFTING BACK INTO THE AREA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING
POTENTIAL OF MCS INTO THE REGION. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING ALOFT.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF FAR
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING AND TOWARDS THE TAF SITES. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT
ALL THREE TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR WHEN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AND COULD SEE LINGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY WITH
STRONG WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDOUS EXPECTED.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

WISE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
859 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-040200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
859 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...ELEVATED.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK FOR GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.
  LIMITED RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED FLASH FLOODING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS EVENING ALONG A
  AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW PUSH
  OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
  HOURS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
  REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE
  WEATHER WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
  MPH REMAINING THE MAIN THREATS. WIND SHEAR IS WEAK ACROSS THE
  AREA...HOWEVER THERE IS A LIMITED RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
  WITHIN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND ARE ABLE TO MOVE ALONG THE
  FRONT OR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

  THE MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SLOW AND
  THEY MAY ALSO TEND TO TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...WHICH
  WILL LEAD TO A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
  SOUTHERN MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
  HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

  SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
  AS A FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE OUTLOOK AREA. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
  OCCUR IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
  ACTIVITY WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
  MORNING HOURS AS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS TRACK SOUTHEAST OUT
  OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S WILL BE
  POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED A LONG AND NORTH OF A
  BAXTER SPRINGS KANSAS TO SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI TO ROUND SPRINGS
  MISSOURI LINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEN MAY BE NEEDED
  ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WFO SGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
817 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     HAIL             FRONTENAC               37.46N 94.69W
06/02/2010  E1.00 INCH       CRAWFORD           KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

RKARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
820 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0819 PM     HAIL             4 W NIXA                37.04N 93.37W
06/02/2010  E0.88 INCH       CHRISTIAN          MO   PUBLIC

&&

RKARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
822 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     HAIL             1 N FRONTENAC           37.47N 94.69W
06/02/2010  E1.00 INCH       CRAWFORD           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RKARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
845 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 PM     HAIL             ST. ROBERT              37.83N 92.18W
06/02/2010  E0.50 INCH       PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

&&

RKARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
854 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     WEST MINERAL            37.28N 94.92W
06/02/2010                   CHEROKEE           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RKARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
856 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     W SCAMMON               37.28N 94.82W
06/02/2010                   CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

RKARDELL