Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Springfield, MO

393 
WGUS53 KSGF 141429
FFWSGF
MOC057-059-077-105-109-119-145-169-225-142100-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-100514T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
929 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  LACLEDE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  MCDONALD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  SOUTHEASTERN DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  SOUTHERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  WEBSTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT FRIDAY.

* AT 928 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND RIVER   
  AND STREAM GAUGE INFORMATION INDICATED THAT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS 
  PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THE NIANGUA RIVER 
  AT WINDYVILLE HAS EXCEEDED FLOOD STAGE AND CONTINUES TO RISE.   

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING.
  CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
  SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...LIKELY RESULTING 
IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS AND LOW 
WATER CROSSINGS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9462 3692 9463 3706 9425 3705 9407
      3712 9406 3742 9363 3742 9319 3777 9320
      3780 9254 3789 9203 3763 9203 3761 9225
      3748 9226 3748 9269 3707 9269 3710 9361
      3696 9362 3692 9371 3693 9407 3649 9408

$$

BOXELL

420 
WGUS73 KSGF 142100
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
400 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

MOC057-059-077-105-109-119-145-169-225-142109-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-100514T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAWRENCE MO-GREENE MO-WEBSTER MO-DADE MO-LACLEDE MO-DALLAS MO-
PULASKI MO-NEWTON MO-MCDONALD MO-
400 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM CDT FOR DALLAS...
GREENE...LACLEDE...LAWRENCE...MCDONALD...NEWTON...SOUTHEASTERN
DADE...SOUTHERN PULASKI AND WEBSTER COUNTIES...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING 
UNTIL 10 AM ON SATURDAY.

LAT...LON 3650 9462 3692 9463 3706 9425 3705 9407
      3712 9406 3742 9363 3742 9319 3777 9320
      3780 9254 3789 9203 3763 9203 3761 9225
      3748 9226 3748 9269 3707 9269 3710 9361
      3696 9362 3692 9371 3693 9407 3649 9408

$$

SCHAUMANN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
321 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE BOOT HEAL OF MISSOURI INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE 850MB FRONT IS BISECTING THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTH OF THE 850MB FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS IT HAS BEEN THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHT...HOWEVER AT 20KT IT IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE
THIS CONVECTION. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THIS ACTIVITY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND
THE CONVECTION HAS HAD ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY DRIFT TO LIMIT
WIDESPREAD TRAINING. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS DRIFTED NORTH
TO THE 850MB FRONT AND DO NOT EXPECTED THE CONVECTION TO SPREAD
MUCH MORE TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY START TO
ADD UP OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AS
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA MOVES INTO THE
AREA THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FLOODING RISK
ACROSS THESE AREAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT FEEL AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO DECREASE LATE THIS MORNING THIS ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
WILL PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL START TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT AND SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE SATURDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AREA IS NOT EXPECTED TO REALLY EVER GET DEEP
INTO THE WARM SECTOR SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
COULD SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE RECENT RAINFALLS
THAT HAVE OCCURRED COULD CREATE FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE AREA THEN GETS INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN EARLY INTO THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT MCS DEVELOP WILL BE
POSSIBLE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA IN THIS TYPE OF UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. IT IS POSSIBLE IF ANY ACTIVITY CAN DEVELOP IT COULD
DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EACH MORNING. THIS IS
MORE OF A MESOSCALE ISSUE THAT WILL HAVE TO BE IRONED OUT WITH
TIME.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 14/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...SCATTERED TSTMS WILL AFFECT
TAF SITES EARLY...ESPECIALLY KJLN/KSGF. AFTERWARD...MVFR/OCNL IFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS
FRI. SHOULD SEE DIURNAL LIFTING OF CEILINGS. OVERALL...NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS VERSUS THE GFS....AND
PLAYED THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRI. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOZ077-079>083-
     088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
515 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-151015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
515 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...ELEVATED

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK

  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK

DISCUSSION...

  NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
  MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
  MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
  GIRARD KANSAS TO LEBANON AND SALEM MISSOURI. THIS ADDITIONAL
  RAINFALL WILL COMBINE WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS TO CREATE AN
  ELEVATED RISK OF FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
  NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
  WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

  WITH THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE OCCURRED
  THIS WEEK AND THAT ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND...THE
  FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS THE GROUND BECOMES
  SATURATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE