Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Springfield, MO

861 
WGUS73 KSGF 141112
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
612 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

KSC021-MOC011-039-057-097-109-145-167-141400-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-100514T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHEROKEE KS-LAWRENCE MO-JASPER MO-DADE MO-BARTON MO-POLK MO-CEDAR MO-
NEWTON MO-
612 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR
CHEROKEE...DADE...JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE...
POLK...SOUTHERN BARTON AND SOUTHERN CEDAR COUNTIES...

AT 611 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. ONE TO 
TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...WITH 
ANOTHER HALF INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 AM.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...

ROUTE H JUST NORTH OF PLEASANT HOPE...
NORTH MAIN AND MURPHY BOULEVARD IN JOPLIN...
HIGHWAY 97 AT THE SPRING RIVER NORTH OF STOTTS CITY...
ROUTE AA AT THE POMME DE TERRE EAST OF BOLIVAR...
HIGHWAY 37 AT THE SPRING RIVER SOUTHWEST OF AVILLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3733 9508 3733 9462 3738 9461 3781 9361
      3779 9320 3743 9319 3743 9362 3731 9367
      3715 9386 3698 9424 3692 9462 3698 9463
      3700 9508

$$

SCHAUMANN

685 
WGUS53 KSGF 141353
FFWSGF
KSC021-MOC011-039-057-097-109-145-167-142100-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-100514T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
853 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
  DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  SOUTHERN BARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  SOUTHERN CEDAR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT FRIDAY.

* AT 850 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT
  EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED  
  AREA. CHEROKEE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS    
  FLOODED ROADS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.   
  IN ADDITION...THE NEOSHO RIVER AND LIGHTNING CREEK ARE REPORTED TO 
  BE NEAR FLOOD STAGE.  

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING.     
  CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY        
  SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY TODAY...LIKELY 
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS 
AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3733 9508 3733 9462 3738 9461 3781 9361
      3779 9320 3743 9319 3743 9362 3731 9367
      3715 9386 3698 9424 3692 9462 3698 9463
      3700 9508

$$

BOXELL

350 
WGUS73 KSGF 142059
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
359 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

KSC021-MOC011-039-057-097-109-145-167-142106-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-100514T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHEROKEE KS-LAWRENCE MO-JASPER MO-DADE MO-BARTON MO-POLK MO-CEDAR MO-
NEWTON MO-
359 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM CDT FOR CHEROKEE...
DADE...JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE...POLK...
SOUTHERN BARTON AND SOUTHERN CEDAR COUNTIES...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING 
UNTIL 10 AM ON SATURDAY.

LAT...LON 3733 9508 3733 9462 3738 9461 3781 9361
      3779 9320 3743 9319 3743 9362 3731 9367
      3715 9386 3698 9424 3692 9462 3698 9463
      3700 9508

$$

SCHAUMANN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
321 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE BOOT HEAL OF MISSOURI INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE 850MB FRONT IS BISECTING THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTH OF THE 850MB FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS IT HAS BEEN THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHT...HOWEVER AT 20KT IT IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE
THIS CONVECTION. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THIS ACTIVITY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND
THE CONVECTION HAS HAD ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY DRIFT TO LIMIT
WIDESPREAD TRAINING. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS DRIFTED NORTH
TO THE 850MB FRONT AND DO NOT EXPECTED THE CONVECTION TO SPREAD
MUCH MORE TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY START TO
ADD UP OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AS
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA MOVES INTO THE
AREA THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FLOODING RISK
ACROSS THESE AREAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT FEEL AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO DECREASE LATE THIS MORNING THIS ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
WILL PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL START TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT AND SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE SATURDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AREA IS NOT EXPECTED TO REALLY EVER GET DEEP
INTO THE WARM SECTOR SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
COULD SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE RECENT RAINFALLS
THAT HAVE OCCURRED COULD CREATE FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE AREA THEN GETS INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN EARLY INTO THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT MCS DEVELOP WILL BE
POSSIBLE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA IN THIS TYPE OF UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. IT IS POSSIBLE IF ANY ACTIVITY CAN DEVELOP IT COULD
DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EACH MORNING. THIS IS
MORE OF A MESOSCALE ISSUE THAT WILL HAVE TO BE IRONED OUT WITH
TIME.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 14/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...SCATTERED TSTMS WILL AFFECT
TAF SITES EARLY...ESPECIALLY KJLN/KSGF. AFTERWARD...MVFR/OCNL IFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS
FRI. SHOULD SEE DIURNAL LIFTING OF CEILINGS. OVERALL...NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS VERSUS THE GFS....AND
PLAYED THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRI. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOZ077-079>083-
     088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
819 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-150130-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
819 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...ELEVATED.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.

ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE OZARKS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM GIRARD KANSAS TO LEBANON AND SALEM MISSOURI. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL COMBINE WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS TO
CREATE AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE
WEEK...THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS THE GROUND BECOMES
SATURATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

ANGLE