Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Springfield, MO

194 
WGUS73 KSGF 131501
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1001 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

KSC011-037-MOC011-217-131511-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-100513T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-BARTON MO-VERNON MO-
1001 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR BOURBON...CRAWFORD...
NORTHERN BARTON AND VERNON COUNTIES...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3781 9509 3804 9506 3803 9462 3806 9462
      3806 9431 3804 9423 3806 9413 3804 9408
      3762 9408 3733 9499 3734 9508

$$

TERRY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
333 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON AND BEHIND
THIS FRONT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED AS THERE REMAINS A LARGE
AMOUNT OF MLCIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING. WITH THE MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG
SHEAR IN PLACE...SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. IF STORMS CAN FORM INTO A LINE AND GENERATE A STRONG COLD
POOL A SEVERE WIND RISK WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THIS MORNING. THE STORM FLOW
WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND WITH THE SLOW EASTERLY MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT...TRAINING OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AREA OF
MOST CONCERN WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA...GENERALLY FROM ALONG
AND NORTH OF A PITTSBURG KANSAS TO ROLLA MISSOURI LINE. SATURATED
SOIL IS ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALLS WHICH OCCURRED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL
ALSO INCREASE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OUT AS IS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SO A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL
AND WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. IF ENOUGH HEATING
CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT SURFACE BASED STORMS AND A LIMITED
RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A CONDITIONAL
RISK WITH THE MAIN SEVERE RISK EXPECTED BEING HAIL AND WIND WITH ANY
LINE SEGMENTS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGER CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

A COOLER AND MAINLY DRY DAY IS THEN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE DRY PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER WITH THE REPEATED ROUNDS
OF RAINFALL OVER THE AREA THIS WEEK...FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN.

A FEW DRY DAYS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES OR
RAIN RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 13/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN MO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MO OZARKS THU. STARTING TO SEE
SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN OK/KS
AND EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND ANY CAPPING WEAKENS. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVIER RAIN/TSTMS. IN GENERAL...SHOULD SEE
LOWERING CEILINGS WITH INCREASING SHRA/TSTMS...BUT STILL GENERALLY
MVFR/VFR. BETTER CHANCES FOR LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT
LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>081-089.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ073-097.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
831 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-140145-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
831 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK...

LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK FOR WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TO THE MISSOURI AND KANSAS
BORDER REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 71 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT....THEN
SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST TO ROUGHLY A CASSVILLE TO MARSHFIELD TO
ROLLA LINE BY 7 AM. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. THERE IS A LIMITED
THREAT FOR TORNADOES NORTHWEST OF A JOPLIN TO ELDON LINE.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A PITTSBURG KANSAS TO
ROLLA MISSOURI LINE WHERE SOILS ARE VERY SATURATED FROM RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE
WEEK...THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS THE GROUND BECOMES
SATURATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGER SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
OVERALL REGIONAL WEATHER. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE
TONIGHT NORTHWEST OF A ANDERSON TO SPRINGFIELD TO ELDON LINE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 AM     HAIL             HIATTVILLE              37.72N 94.87W
05/13/2010  M1.00 INCH       BOURBON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
338 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 AM     TSTM WND GST     FRONTENAC               37.46N 94.69W
05/13/2010  E60 MPH          CRAWFORD           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WISE