Areal Flood Warning 21, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
712 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING. THIS RAINFALL HAS
REALLY LIMITED INSTABILITY AND HAS DECREASED THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THESE AREA. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS AREA HAS NOT BE
CONTAMINATED BY THIS RAINFALL AND INSTABILITY STILL EXIST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

A STRONG LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
GENERALLY EXTENDING FROM NEVADA MISSOURI DOWN TO THE SOUTH INTO
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. THERE IS GOOD COLD POOL SHEAR BALANCE SO
EXPECT THE LINE TO CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST THIS MORNING.
THERE IS AN ELEVATED SEVERE WIND RISK FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AHEAD OF THIS LINE AS IT PUSHES
EAST....GENERALLY SOUTH OF A SPRINGFIELD TO ROLLA MISSOURI LINE. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL NORTH OF THIS LINE IS VERY LIMITED DUE TO INCREASED
CIN FROM THE CONVECTION THAT HAS AND IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS
LINE.

WISE

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON AND BEHIND
THIS FRONT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED AS THERE REMAINS A LARGE
AMOUNT OF MLCIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING. WITH THE MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG
SHEAR IN PLACE...SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. IF STORMS CAN FORM INTO A LINE AND GENERATE A STRONG COLD
POOL A SEVERE WIND RISK WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THIS MORNING. THE STORM FLOW
WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND WITH THE SLOW EASTERLY MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT...TRAINING OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AREA OF
MOST CONCERN WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA...GENERALLY FROM ALONG
AND NORTH OF A PITTSBURG KANSAS TO ROLLA MISSOURI LINE. SATURATED
SOIL IS ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALLS WHICH OCCURRED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL
ALSO INCREASE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OUT AS IS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SO A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL
AND WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. IF ENOUGH HEATING
CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT SURFACE BASED STORMS AND A LIMITED
RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A CONDITIONAL
RISK WITH THE MAIN SEVERE RISK EXPECTED BEING HAIL AND WIND WITH ANY
LINE SEGMENTS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGER CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

A COOLER AND MAINLY DRY DAY IS THEN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE DRY PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER WITH THE REPEATED ROUNDS
OF RAINFALL OVER THE AREA THIS WEEK...FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN.

A FEW DRY DAYS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES OR
RAIN RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS....MAIN CONCERN IN THIS TAF
PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH ON GOING CONVECTION AND A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE TAF SITE. THE LINE OF
STORM WILL PUSH INTO THE KJLN SITE JUST BEFORE THE TAF PERIOD
BEGINS AND THROUGH THE KSGF AND KBBG SITES BY 14Z. STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS LINE AS IT PASSES OVER THE TAF
SITES.

BEHIND THIS LINE OF STORMS...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

WISE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>081-088-089-093-094-101.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

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